A year ago Barack Obama described the epic wave of revolution that had begun in Tunisia and Egypt as "a historic opportunity" for the United States "to pursue the world as it should be." He said America must promote "change that advances self-determination and opportunity." And he asserted that "we can make a difference" in how the uprising turns out.
Today the badly misnamed "Arab Spring" is beginning to look like an epic mess. An ugly civil war in Syria could easily spread across the Levant. In Egypt, the victory of an Islamist in a democratic presidential election has prompted a power struggle with the military. Violent political conflict continues in Yemen, Libya and Bahrain. Only Tunisia appears headed toward the new era of democracy and development that Obama promised to promote, and even there it's not clear how tolerant a new Islamist government will prove to be.
Needless to say, Middle Easterners have been the prime makers of this muddle. But given the expectations raised by Obama, it's fair to ask: How much of it is his fault?