BERLIN — Fuad Siniora, Lebanon's former prime minister, is a thoughtful man with deep experience in Middle Eastern politics. So when he speaks of "trains with no drivers that seem to be on a collision course," as he recently did at a private meeting in Berlin, interested parties should probably prepare for unwanted developments. Of course, no one in the region is calling for war. But a prewar mood is growing.
Four factors, none of them new but each destabilizing on its own, are compounding one another: lack of hope, dangerous governmental policies, a regional power vacuum and the absence of active external mediation.
It may be reassuring that most Palestinians and Israelis still favor a two-state solution. It is less reassuring that most Israelis and a large majority of Palestinians have lost hope that such a solution will ever materialize.