Is former Prime Minister Taro Aso solely to blame for the crushing defeat of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the Aug. 30 general election at the hands of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)?

No, because even before the election campaign started, the party was beset by internal chaos and complacency.

Can the LDP recover from this defeat and once again become a viable force to challenge the DPJ? The answer is yes, but only if it can find a powerful leader capable of keeping its members unified.

There is similarity in the ancestral backgrounds of Aso, who stepped down as both prime minister and LDP president after the election, and Yukio Hatoyama, who led the DPJ in winning 308 of the 480 seats in the Lower House and was subsequently elected new prime minister: Their grandfathers headed the government of Japan during the early postwar period.

Hatoyama's grandfather, Ichiro, who was prime minister from 1954 to 1956, was the founding president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Yukio himself started his political career in 1986 as an LDP member, but revolted against the party in 1993. Grandfather Ichiro's immediate predecessor as prime minister, as well as his archrival, was Shigeru Yoshida, who was Aso's maternal grandfather.

Yoshida was imprisoned during World War II by the ruling military for his pacifist ideology, and after the war ended, he said the defeat was not necessarily a bad thing for the country. This "good loser" characteristic apparently was not inherited by his grandson, however, as evidenced by the "negative campaign" that Aso waged against Hatoyama and his followers.

Many LDP members lament that had the party been headed by someone other than Aso, it would not have fared so badly. Indeed, within months of his assuming the reins of government in September 2008, his authority and trustworthiness started plummeting, as he repeatedly mispronounced kanji phrases during speeches and frequented expensive hotel bars. His approval rate never recovered.

Adding insult to injury was the incompetence shown by his top lieutenants — LDP secretary general Hiroyuki Hosoda and Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura.

It may be unfair, however, to place all the blame on Aso, who was elected to head the party even as its reputation was on the wane after his two immediate predecessors — Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda — gave up their positions only a year into their respective premierships.

There were a number of other factors that had been working against the LDP — a shift of the election system from multiple-seat constituencies to single-seat districts; a drastic decrease in the number of municipal assemblymen, many of whom supported the LDP, as a result of municipal mergers; introduction of governmental subsidies to political parties; extension of voting hours on election day, which served to increase voter turnout; and a sharp drop in the number of LDP members following the start of the open-list system for candidates for proportional representation in the Upper House election.

Aso apparently failed to become aware of the crisis in the party, owing to complacency generated by many decades of one-party rule. There was only a halfhearted move from those dissatisfied with Aso to depose him, while Aso himself steadfastly rejected calls for an early election.

Some observers argue that the LDP's defeat was merely a reaction to its overwhelming victory in the 2005 general election, scored on the coattails of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's "structural reform" agenda centering on privatizing postal services. This argument does not hold water, though, because even in the 2005 election, quite a few DPJ candidates held on to their parliamentary seats and worked toward building a foundation for recovery.

This is not the first time the LDP has lost control of the government. In the 1993 general election, it won 223 seats, more than any other party, but had to relinquish the premiership to the opposition forces led by Morihiro Hosokawa. Within 10 months, however, the LDP regained power by forming a coalition with the Japan Socialist Party and the New Party Sakigake.

During these 10 months, a number of LDP lawmakers abandoned the party, but after it came back to power, many of them returned to the fold, proving that having control of the government is the best way to keep LDP politicians under one roof.

This time, many veteran LDP leaders lost their seats in the Lower House, and some appear ready to retire from politics altogether. The election defeat appears likely to bring down the intraparty factional structure, and doubts have been cast as to whether politicians with diametrically opposed ideologies — notably former party secretary general Koichi Kato, who is a liberal, and former Prime Minister Abe, a conservative — can live together in a much smaller party.

Barring unforeseen events, the nation's next general election won't be for another four years. The LDP will likely have a hard time keeping its members together. The DPJ's Ozawa may apply pressure on some Upper House LDP members to defect, thus enabling his party to gain majority control of the Upper House as well.

Another way of looking at the LDP's circumstances is that its election defeat could present a golden opportunity for the party to reform under fresh leadership. A prerequisite to that would be preventing an exodus of members.

Hatoyama, Ozawa and their followers who now form the DPJ had to struggle for 16 long years after bolting the LDP to attain their goal of forming their own government. This patience and long-range vision are indispensable if the LDP is to become a player in a sound two-party political system and able to regain voter confidence. The most important thing is a strong determination to take power back from the ruling party.

The key to resurrecting the party seems to lie in whether it can elect a leader as capable and magnanimous as Shigeru Yoshida, who ruled the country for more than seven difficult years immediately after the war.

This is an abridged translation of an article from the September issue of Sentaku, a monthly magazine covering Japanese political, social and economic scenes.