Regarding Brahma Chellaney's April 1 article, "China versus the Dalai Lama": The succession of the Dalai Lama is, and always has been, an important topic. He himself has long said that the 15th Dalai Lama will be born in a free world.
The point I want to raise here is that the Karmapa Lama is not the third most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism as mentioned in the article. International media are misinforming the world. Sakya Lama, based in Dehra Dun, is the third most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism. And since the Gelugpas are the majority in the Tibetan society, the head of the Gelugpa sect, Ganden Tripa, will be the fourth most important figure. In fact, the Karmapa may not even be the fifth most important figure; that would be someone from the Nyingma school.
The future of Tibet will be a democratic society where official posts are decided by vote. In such a scenario, the Karmapa is not likely to have a good chance. After the passing of the Dalai Lama, a regent and two assistants will be the caretaker supreme head of the Tibetan people. These posts will be elected by the people. It would be helpful if those interested in this topic would read the Charter of the Tibetans in exile and understand the reality on the ground rather than base suggestions on previously published articles that are wrong.