Zimbabwe appears to be continuing its slide toward the abyss. Its economy has virtually seized up. The government of President Robert Mugabe adopts increasingly harsh measures to block protests over economic mismanagement and to crush any political opposition. Reportedly Zimbabwe is now a threat to its neighbors and could destabilize the region. Therein lies the only real hope for the country: Only when South Africa, Zimbabwe's neighbor and biggest supporter, becomes genuinely concerned about the situation there, will there be some hope for change.
The collapse of Zimbabwe's economy began seven years ago, when Mr. Mugabe seized the land of white farmers to give it to landless blacks. He justified the move by arguing that whites had exploited the country and the black natives had a more deserving claim to the land. In fact, the expropriations were designed to win support from angry black army veterans who Mr. Mugabe's government had largely ignored. And many of the best pieces of property were taken not by ordinary citizens, but by the president's closest allies and supporters.
The expropriations turned Africa's "bread basket" into a basket case. The new owners had little if any knowledge of farming. Land went fallow and agricultural production plummeted. Tobacco production, one of the three pillars of Zimbabwe's economy, is now forecast to be just 20 percent of the 1999 level; food output has fallen by two-thirds. The government has admitted that maize production is only third of its annual needs and it will have to import more than 1 million tons to make up for the deficit. According to the United Nations World Food Program, 1.4 million Zimbabweans, some 15 percent of the population, will need food aid until the next harvest in April.