New Year! Finally, there's a bit of good news to report in cross-strait relations. During this holiday period, the first direct flights are taking place between mainland China and Taiwan since the 1949 Chinese civil war. But while both sides applaud these charter flights as an important step forward, neither seems ready to build upon this important initiative.
A week in Beijing and Taipei has convinced me that, on most issues, the two sides remain hopelessly divided. The difference was most stark when it came to Beijing's recently proposed Anti-Secession Law. According to Beijing, the law merely codifies existing policies while opening the door for cross-strait dialogue if Taipei avoids crossing specified "red lines." Taipei, on the other hand, sees it as a prelude to an attack and an attempt to destroy free speech. Similar night vs. day arguments can be heard regarding China's "one country, two systems" formula and the applicability (or even existence) of the "1992 consensus," under which cross-strait dialogue last occurred in the early 1990s.
It was both surprising and mildly encouraging, therefore, to see a great coincidence of views when the direct flights were discussed. Both sides agreed that the arrangement, brokered during unofficial talks was a positive step forward. It not only allowed direct flights for the first time -- New Year flights had been allowed in 2003, but the planes had to touch down in Hong Kong before proceeding on to Taipei -- but also permitted mainland as well as Taiwan airlines to participate. There were still restrictions: Only Taiwan businessmen were allowed to use the flights and the aircraft had to use established air routes over Hong Kong, rather than using more direct routes. Nonetheless, the flights marked a historic first.
Security specialists on both sides also agreed that the flights would not have been possible were it not for the outcome of the December Legislative Yuan (LY) elections. Taiwan's ruling coalition had been widely expected to win the elections -- Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian had brashly predicted victory -- but the opposition retained a majority of seats. While officials in Beijing did not believe that this setback would deter the "Taiwan authorities" from pursuing their "independence" goal, it was seen as severely limiting Chen's options, allowing Beijing to relax a bit. Meanwhile, Chen needed to demonstrate to middle-of-the-road voters (and Washington) that he was capable of cooperating with Beijing, thereby putting pressure on Taipei to accept the agreement even though most analysts believed that Taipei yielded more than Beijing.