Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian had a disappointing weekend. His Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was unable to win a majority in parliamentary elections held Saturday. The result is likely to be continuing gridlock in Taiwanese politics, as different parties control the presidency and the legislature. More troubling, the results will encourage more intransigence from Beijing. The outcome will support those in China who argue that their government's hard line against Mr. Chen has checked his political popularity and forced Taiwanese voters to opt for moderation. Given Mr. Chen's history of responding emotionally to defeat, relations across the Strait could worsen.
Mr. Chen's DPP has made steady gains over the last decade. He used the party as a springboard for presidential election victories in 2000 and 2004, and it has gradually increased its seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY). Although the DPP won 87 seats in the last ballot, making it the largest single party in the LY, it was unable to claim a majority even in combination with its ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), an unabashedly proindependence party established by former President Lee Teng-hui.
Instead, the opposition Nationalist Party, the KMT, and its allies won 114 of 225 legislative seats -- an increase of three -- to retain control of the LY. The DPP and its ally won 101 seats. The DPP and the KMT both increased their share of the popular vote, with the KMT picking up 11 additional seats and the DPP, two. The losers were the more radical parties: The TSU lost one of its 13 seats, and the prounification People's First Party, a KMT ally, lost 12 seats, tumbling from 46 to 34. That should take some of the sharp edges off Taiwanese politics.