The situation in Iraq is deteriorating. That is not a popular view, but it is hard to dispute. The government of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi cannot claim to control the entire country, and insurgents are stepping up attacks in an attempt to delay elections planned for January. Failure to hold that vote will undermine the legitimacy of any government in Baghdad. There are many prerequisites for the stabilization of the situation in Iraq, but an absolutely essential first step is acknowledging the grim reality on the ground.
It was widely anticipated that handing over authority in Iraq from the United States-led occupying forces to a local government would stem the fighting in that country. That hope was misguided. Since Mr. Allawi's government took office last summer, violence has intensified. Some of the attackers are Ba'athists and supporters of the former regime; others are disaffected Sunni Muslims, who have lost their privileges with the fall of Saddam Hussein; still others are foreign terrorists who have come to Iraq to do battle with "the Great Satan" and its allies.
Yet many, including U.S. President George W. Bush, insist that the situation is improving. In his weekly radio address last weekend, Mr. Bush applauded the "steady progress" that has been made in Iraq, noting that the handover of sovereignty took place ahead of schedule, that nearly 100,000 fully trained and equipped Iraqi security personnel are working in Iraq to restore peace, and that national elections would take place next year. He conceded that violence persists, and even anticipated an upsurge as that ballot approaches, but Mr. Bush remains convinced that the trends are positive.