Officials of six nations held talks in Beijing late last month on ways of defusing the North Korean nuclear crisis, 50 years after the signing of the armistice agreement that ended hostilities in the Korean War. The talks culminated in agreement to solve the crisis in a peaceful manner through dialogue and pave the way for permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula. The United States and North Korea, however, remained sharply divided over the abolition of the latter's nuclear-arms program.
Will the talks become the first step in a long process of establishing a new framework for consultations on security in Northeast Asia? Or will they mark the beginning of instability caused by tension over North Korea's nuclear threat?
Although North and South Korea, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia agreed on the need to promote "denuclearization" of the Peninsula, they failed to agree on specific measures to achieve the goal. Stronger international cooperation is the only way to get North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and join the international community.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said North Korea's participation in the multilateral talks was a positive move.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the conference host, praised the talks for establishing the goal of denuclearizing the peninsula and agreeing on the need for a peaceful settlement of nuclear standoff with North Korea.
Although Wang announced six points of agreement at the talks, the parties failed to issue a joint communique, as China had planned. North Korea reportedly objected to issuing the communique because it did not want to be bound by it.
The participating nations also agreed to refrain from taking any action that could worsen the crisis. Although originally intended to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions, the agreement could also be used by North Korea to press Japan and the U.S. not to take hostile action against it. The agreement is vague and subject to varied interpretations. North Korea's true intentions regarding nuclear arms are unclear, as officials make contradictory remarks and issue inconsistent official documents.
North Korea supported the agreement to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Yong Il reportedly told the plenary conference that Pyongyang was ready to conduct a nuclear test and declare its possession of nuclear arms unless the U.S. ended its hostile policy toward the North.
After the talks ended, the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Pyongyang has become convinced it has "no other alternatives but to continue strengthening our nuclear deterrence as a self-defensive measure to protect our sovereignty." North Korean officials' remarks that contradicted the conference agreement were apparently intended to threaten the U.S.
Pyongyang and Washington are still sharply divided over the nuclear issue. Pyongyang argues that Washington should reverse its hostile policy and conclude a nonaggression pact with the North. Pyongyang seeks, above all, guarantees for the survival of Kim Jong Il's regime. For North Korea, nuclear-arms development no doubt is the bargaining chip indispensable for such guarantees.
On the other hand, the United States demands that North Korea abandon its nuclear-arms program in a verifiable and irreversible way, and refuses to sign a nonaggression pact.
To solve the problem, the North Koreans proposed a four-phase plan, seeking in advance economic aid and guarantees for the regime's survival. They would not promise to abandon the nuclear program until the last minute. As one-on-one talks between Pyongyang and Washington on the sidelines of the six-party conference broke down, there was little prospect of Pyongyang's demand being met.
For Japan, participation in the six-nation talks was important not only because the abduction issue remains unsolved but also because North Korea's nuclear-arms and missile development poses the biggest security threat to Japan. To deal with the threat, the Defense Agency is rushing to develop missile defense plans.
Eliminating that threat through an international framework is vital for peace and security in Japan and Northeast Asia. Japan has an international obligation to play a key role in the framework for international consultations on security in the region.
The Japanese government has formulated a basic policy of normalizing relations with North Korea only after solving the nuclear-arms, missile and abduction issues as a package. These issues involve a military threat to Japan and violations of national sovereignty. In dealing with North Korea, Japan should never waver from the policy.
Japan and the U.S. brought up the abduction issue at the plenary talks, but North Korea claimed the issue had already settled under the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration signed by Koizumi and Kim Jong Il.
However, at the talks with Japan held on the final day of the Beijing conference, North Korea expressed willingness to solve all pending bilateral problems, including the abduction issue, one by one, on the basis of the Pyongyang Declaration. By expressing such readiness, Pyongyang presumably sought to avoid international isolation amid deadlocked relations with Washington.
Adapting its strategies to the changing situation is a favorite North Korean tactic. North Korea's true intentions must be carefully considered. North Korea's expression of readiness to solve all pending problems could be a signal of its wish to resume bilateral negotiations on the abduction and other issues.
Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said Pyongyang was ready to negotiate, having realized that Tokyo would never change its basic policy, never compromise, and threats would not work.
North Korea could yet make unforeseen moves before Tuesday, its Sept. 9 national founding day and the first anniversary of the signing of the Pyongyang Declaration during Koizumi's landmark visit to Pyongyang (Sept. 17). The moves could conceivably include a declaration of the possession of nuclear arms or a decision to allow relatives of the five abductees to go to Japan. But Tokyo should not be taken in by such action.
Japan cannot normalize relations with North Korea unless the nuclear-arms, missile and abduction issues are solved as a package. It should stick to that position in future six-party talks by strengthening cooperation with the U.S. and South Korea.
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