At the beginning of 2002, the political situation in Japan appears relatively stable. Compared with 2001, which witnessed a series of radical changes, the new year is likely to see Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pushing his reform plans ahead on the back of his huge popularity.

Looking back to the past year, the popular mood changed abruptly in April when Koizumi took over from Yoshiro Mori with promises of "structural reform." Koizumi's debut marked the birth of a sort of revolutionary administration, not a conventional revolving-door leadership change. He vowed to shake up the hidebound structure of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and to overhaul outdated political and economic systems.

His passionate calls for change, combined with his strong character, boosted his popularity to record levels. Eight months after taking office, his public approval ratings are still 70 to 80 percent.

Abroad, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States changed the world as a "new war" erupted between established states and organized terrorism. It was nothing like the Cold War confrontation between East and West.

Russia has extended nonmilitary cooperation in the U.S.-led antiterrorism campaign, while China has expressed "understanding." Japan has provided noncombat logistic support, putting its war-renouncing Constitution on the line.

In short, Sept. 11 opened a new page in world history. Its global impact -- political, economic and cultural -- is likely to continue for a long time. It is indeed possible that the whole world and all of humanity are entering a new period.

The event has confronted the world with a host of difficult and complex problems. One immediate problem is economic. The U.S. economy, which was slipping into recession even before Sept. 11, has been hit directly. Japan's economy, mired in a decade-long slump, is headed for further stagnation.

It is too early to tell how the terrorist attacks will affect the global economy in the long run, as well as the psychology of people the world over. Much seems to depend on how the war against terrorism develops in the months ahead.

As for Japan's political situation, the immediate question is how the Koizumi administration will perform this year. The question partly depends on economic trends at the end of March, when banks and other companies close their books. Three scenarios are possible:

First, economic conditions deteriorate so badly that a full-blown crisis develops. As a result, Koizumi finds himself in a hot spot. This is very unlikely to happen.

Second, Koizumi carries out his plans to inject more funds into undercapitalized banks and to lift the freeze on partial deposit protection in April. Thus he weathers the "March crisis," giving top priority to structural reform while dealing flexibly with the economy.

Third, he minimizes economic turmoil by giving as much attention to growth as to reform. In particular, he shores up popular confidence by taking further steps to curb unemployment.

In the second case, the Koizumi administration would remain stable after March, backed by high approval ratings. In the third case, his popularity might have to drop to between 40 and 50 percent. Even so, his administration would continue into the second half of the new fiscal year.

The first case -- one characterized by chaos and failure -- is unlikely because Koizumi is steeled against adversity. He is not the kind of man who gives up easily when things get tough. Even if he quits, nobody inside or outside the LDP is willing or able to succeed him.

One way to drive a prime minister to resign is to present a no-confidence vote to the Diet and get it approved by a majority. Even if it is approved, however, Koizumi can take the offensive by calling a snap general election through dissolution of the Lower House.

Whichever the case, it is unthinkable, given his strong character, that Koizumi will call it quits unless his popularity plummets to 20 to 30 percent.

Another reason to rule out a leadership change: The current term of Lower House members continues through June 2004. Moreover, the next Upper House election is set for two years later (the last election was held in June 2001).

So there is little or no chance of a Lower House election being held this year. Politically, 2002 looks set to be a "clam year." It can be safely said, therefore, that Koizumi will stay at the helm through the end of the year, barring a precipitous fall in his popularity.