SEOUL -- "All contacts have stopped. We had expected North Korea to take up the process again, but they haven't," says South Korean Foreign Minister Han Seung Soo. Since Pyongyang left negotiations last March, not much has happened diplomatically between the two estranged Koreas.

Many explanations are given for the stalemate. For some, the hardening of the U.S. position after the government changed in Washington is the main cause of the collapse of the Sunshine Policy. Others argue that a lack of domestic support for Kim Dae Jung's strategy of engaging the North is responsible. Then there are those who place the responsibility on the North Koreans, saying they are showing their true face again. The truth, I believe, is somewhere in the middle.

In the eyes of the South Korean government, one person could cut the Gordian knot -- Kim Jong Il. A South Korean journalist has counted eight instances in which President Kim Dae Jung reminded his North Korean counterpart in public to make true his promise and commit himself to a reciprocal visit to Seoul.

Kim Dae Jung has good reason to be impatient: With his presidency slowly but surely moving toward the end, he desires to carry on the historic process of national reconciliation kicked about so triumphantly at the first inter-Korean summit in mid-June last year. In fact, Kim Jong Il so far has not broken his promise. The Joint Declaration, in which his visit is mentioned, stipulates it should take place "at an appropriate time." Obviously, the North Korean doesn't deem conditions appropriate at present.

Meanwhile, the Dear Leader's visit has developed into the dominant issue of South Korean domestic politics, overshadowing, if not poisoning, once more the relations between the political parties in the year ahead of the crucial presidential elections. The main opposition party and an influential segment of the media allege that the controversial tax probe of media companies is aimed at disciplining certain hard-core conservative newspapers that have repeatedly voiced opposition to Kim Jong Il's visit. This is a serious accusation which, if proved accurate, would force all democrats to go to the barricades. Nothing, however, can show that freedom of expression at the conservative gazettes has been curtailed.

Hardly a day goes by without media attacks on the government's North Korea policy. More recently, a new chapter in the seemingly endless story was opened when one rightwing paper published a document claiming that the main governing party plans to amend the constitution to prolong its rule following a successful visit of the North Korean leader. The government has denied the allegation, and the politician accused of having written the script has filed a defamation suit against the paper.

The opposition is not overtly rejecting Kim Jong Il's visit to Seoul, but has attached an insurmountable political condition: He should apologize for the Korean War and atrocities committed over the years by the communist state. Others in the South have vowed to stage massive demonstrations should Kim Jong Il dare to visit. According to Lee Chul Seung, chairman of the National Council for Freedom and Democracy, "Welcoming the North Korean leader is no different from Hitler going to Israel without apology and compensation."

Amid such mud-slinging, it's little wonder that the North Korean leader does not feel welcome at the moment. South Korea's domestic politics and the many questions of protocol and security for a visit are but one part of the equation. Kim Jong Il is a shrewd politician, weighing advantages and disadvantages. We should assume he will seriously consider a visit to Seoul only if he has been assured it will pay off for him politically and economically. Now, however, "conditions are not favorable for a big success at the summit," U.S. scholar Selig Harrisson said after returning from Pyongyang, where he had a rare opportunity to speak with exponents of the communist regime.

"From the North's viewpoint, Seoul broke its promises," a commentator at a leading South Korean daily said. In his historic speech at the Free University of Berlin in March 2000, Kim Dae Jung pledged that the South would give massive economic assistance. He announced that "extensive overhead facilities should be put in place in the form of highways, harbors, railroads, electricity and communications."

At the heart of North Korea's economic catastrophe is the virtual breakdown of the energy system. Whoever is sincere in wanting to help North Koreans get back on their feet must help in this area. On more than one occasion, Pyongyang has asked the South to deliver much-needed electricity. During the fourth ministerial talks in December, this matter topped the agenda. In February, Seoul and Pyongyang discussed it at the working level, but the media reported there was no progress. Inter-Korean dialogue collapsed soon thereafter.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, a new administration, considered far less friendly toward the North Korean "rogues" than its predecessors, had taken charge. According to a recent revelation by the former South Korean vice minister for unification, Jeong Se Hyun, Seoul was initially willing to talk about the North Korean request for energy supplies, but suspended negotiations "because of a U.S. request to that effect." This account was confirmed by the scholar Harrisson: "At present, the U.S. is not even letting South Korea give Pyongyang desperately needed energy assistance that Seoul promised. This is the principal reason for Kim Jong Il's delay in visiting the South."