PARIS -- Created 43 years ago by Gen. Charles de Gaulle, France's Fifth Republic has had 14 prime ministers but only five presidents. Most of these premiers have harbored an ambition to become head of state, but only two of them managed to fulfill this dream. Will Lionel Jospin be the third?

There was a time, at the end of the 1990s, when opinion polls showed Jospin as the nation's favorite politician; nothing seemed to stand in the way of his highest ambitions. Today, however, nobody would risk a penny betting on his chances of attaining the presidency. While there's no doubt he still treasures the idea of becoming president, it's not surprising that he takes pains not to say a word about his intentions.

Why is it so difficult, when you have managed to be No. 2, to become No. 1? Some reasons can be attributed to the system of government, others are peculiar to the periods of cohabitation and yet others are determined by the social and/or political agitation of the moment.