Barring unforeseen circumstances, a new Liberal Democratic Party president will emerge from among five candidates later Saturday who will take on the task of unifying a divided party and steering a minority government as the likely prime minister.

According to media polls, the frontrunners are agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 64. Behind them is Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, with former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi lagging behind.

Koizumi has a strong foothold among party lawmakers, with a Nikkei poll saying he is expected to gather about 70 of their votes. Takaichi, on the other hand, is the most popular among the rank and file, with a Nippon TV survey showing 35% of the party’s supporters backing her.

A Takaichi win will put Japan on track to getting its first female prime minister. If Koizumi is elected, he is slated to become the second-youngest prime minister in the country’s history.

Candidates are vying for a total of 590 votes. Incumbent party lawmakers have one vote each, for a total of 295 votes. Votes from about 916,000 rank-and-file members will be proportionally assigned to 295 votes.

A candidate needs a majority of votes to win the presidency. If none of them secures a majority, the top two contenders will head to a runoff, in which each prefectural chapter will contribute one vote, for a total of 47, in addition to the 295 votes from the LDP lawmakers.

With the contest largely expected to head to a runoff, all eyes will be focused on the ballots cast for the three unsuccessful candidates and which way they might flow during the second vote. A lot of the attention is being paid to the party’s kingmakers — former prime ministers Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida.

Unlike last year’s race, the policies of the five candidates are harder to differentiate this time around. They stayed away from controversial topics to avoid losing votes from party lawmakers, whose support will make a bigger difference in a runoff.

Leaving room for policy negotiations with opposition parties for a possible expansion of the ruling coalition was also seen as another factor for the lack of distinction in the candidates’ platforms.

An extraordinary session of the Diet — as Japan’s parliament is formally known — to elect a prime minister is expected to be convened in mid-October.

Although the LDP-Komeito coalition doesn’t have a majority in both chambers of parliament, its pick for prime minister is expected to be elected, with opposition parties being unable to rally behind a candidate of their own.