Tokyo’s cherry blossoms are set to begin blooming on March 21, according to a forecast released Wednesday by private weather company Weathernews.
The projection is based on more than 2 million reports from participants in the company’s “Sakura Project,” alongside temperature data, meteorological models and research at major viewing sites.
This year’s cherry blossom season is expected to align with or slightly precede historical averages in western and eastern Japan. While last year’s blooms were delayed in the south of the Kanto region, this most recent forecast suggests a return to normal timing.
The northern regions of Tohoku and Hokkaido, however, are likely to see blossoms earlier than usual, with Hokkaido’s peak arriving about a week ahead of the historical norm.
Tokyo is expected to lead the season with its first blossoms on March 21, followed by Fukuoka, Kochi and Hiroshima prefectures as well as the city of Yokohama on March 22.
The flowering front will then spread across western and eastern Japan through late March.
South Tohoku is forecast to see its first blooms in early April, while Hokkaido’s sakura season is predicted to begin in the city of Hakodate in late April and extend into early May.
Key forecasts for first blossoms in famous viewing spots include:
- Kumamoto Castle, Kumamoto Prefecture: March 21
- Ueno Park, Tokyo: March 22
- Kochi Park, Kochi Prefecture: March 22
- Arashiyama, Kyoto Prefecture: March 28
- Hirosaki Park, Aomori Prefecture: April 18
Most locations are expected to reach full bloom within five to 14 days of the first blossoms.
March temperatures are forecast to be near historical averages in Kyushu, Shikoku and Kinki, while China and eastern Japan may see slightly above-average warmth, which typically speeds up blossom development.
However, an increase in cloudy days in mid-March could slow things down, offsetting the warmth and keeping bloom timings closer to average.
Northern Japan is projected to experience higher than normal temperatures in April. While occasional cold air masses may still influence conditions for blossoms, a trend toward sunnier weather could accelerate blooming beyond typical timelines — the main factor contributing to the earlier forecast for the region.
Weathernews will release its next cherry blossom forecast in mid-February.
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