Freshly returned to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled Monday that his administration would not focus on maintaining the rules-based global order or cultivating the American network of alliances.
Instead, he vowed that the United States would be a dominating force that would take whatever steps necessary to advance American interests — including flexing its economic muscle and, if necessary, employing its military strength.
“We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer,” Trump said in a speech that mainly focused on domestic issues following his swearing-in. “During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first.”
But Trump, who said he “will again build the strongest military the world has ever seen,” also couched his language in seemingly isolationist rhetoric, saying his administration would “measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”
Those remarks were widely seen as referencing Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, which Trump did not explicitly mention. The president had in recent weeks toned down his rhetoric that he would quickly put an end to that conflict, a move that experts say would have profound effects not just for the European continent but for Asia, as well.
Trump’s words marked a stark shift from his predecessor, Joe Biden, who had made building up America’s alliances and defending the U.S.-led global order key elements of his administration. Under Biden, the U.S.-Japan alliance reached new heights, while trilateral cooperation with South Korea became a key element in a strategy intended to deter both North Korea and China.
Fears of such a shift have gripped Tokyo, where on Tuesday morning Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba congratulated the new president on his inauguration, saying in a letter that he “would like to work closely to further strengthen the Japan-U.S. relations and to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
But Ishiba, the unpopular head of a minority government, also appeared to acknowledge Trump’s thinly veiled message in his inauguration speech, telling reporters later in the day that he would continue to seek a meeting with the new U.S. president at an early date in order to state Japan’s case.
Trump “appears to favor bilateral frameworks over multilateral ones” for clinching deals, Ishiba said, adding that he would aim to “establish a relationship of trust through sincere discussions centered on how we can make the most of the bilateral relationship.”
Japan sent Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya to Washington, ostensibly to attend the inauguration, but also to lay the groundwork for a visit by Ishiba. But with parliament set to kick off Friday, Ishiba said the meeting needs to be arranged without disrupting the parliamentary schedule.
Ishiba unsuccessfully sought a meeting with Trump ahead of the inauguration, and is now hoping to hold talks with the U.S. president as early as next month, according to media reports.
Iwaya said after attending Monday's inauguration that he was seeking a meeting with his “Quad” counterparts, as well as bilateral talks with newly minted Secretary of State Marco Rubio. A meeting of top diplomats from the Quad, which groups Japan, Australia, India and the United States, was expected to be held Tuesday in Washington.
The Japanese foreign minister said that he hoped to “elevate Japan-U.S. relations to a higher level" through these meetings, but especially the talks with Rubio, a China hawk and rare traditionalist in Trump’s Cabinet.
Ishiba will be seeking to keep the U.S.-Japan alliance and economic relationship on stable footing — and boost ties even further — when he eventually meets with Trump.
The absence of any mention of alliances or a commitment to reinforcing the liberal international order in his remarks signals that Trump’s foreign policy remains malleable and transactional, said Sebastian Maslow, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo.
"The message is that everything is on the table and will be renegotiated," he said. "For allies and partners, this implies uncertainty and intensive diplomacy to secure continued U.S. commitment."
Trump has long demonstrated a transactional view of alliances, including of the U.S.-Japan relationship, and could once again demand that Tokyo cough up more cash for hosting U.S. troops or push Tokyo further jack up its own defense spending.
He could also threaten onerous tariffs on Japanese steel, aluminum and automobiles.
Japan — at least for now — dodged that bullet Monday, after Trump signaled that he would not immediately impose tariffs as previously promised.
During his presidential campaign, Trump vowed to impose steep tariffs of 10% to 20% on global imports into the U.S. and 60% on goods from China to help reduce a trade deficit that now tops $1 trillion annually. He also vowed to impose 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, if they failed to clamp down on the flow of illicit drugs and migrants entering the U.S. illegally.
Although no specific tariff plans were announced in his inaugural address, Trump and administration officials signaled they would be coming, with the president telling reporters that he may impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as Feb. 1.
Trump's November vow to again wield tariffs as a club sent shock waves through Japan, with a recent Japan External Trade Organization survey highlighting that more than 70% of Japanese businesses based in the U.S. expected a negative impact from any additional tariffs imposed by the new administration.
Japanese businesses operating in Mexico and Canada were also left slack-jawed, as they scrambled to mitigate any potential fallout, having been under the assumption the two countries would be exempt from the measures under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement free trade pact.
But the president did direct federal agencies to "investigate and remedy" persistent U.S. trade deficits and unfair trade practices by other countries — moves that could more directly impact Japan.
Analysts say Trump could focus on the trade imbalance, in particular.
“On trade, two things make Trump tick: he loves tariffs, and he hates trade deficits,” the Eurasia Group wrote in a report released earlier this month.
That report noted that while several other countries have larger trade deficits than Japan — including China, Mexico, Vietnam and Germany — the U.S. ally will still likely find itself in Trump’s crosshairs thanks to its recent annual deficits of around $70 billion.
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