With pledges to deepen security and economic cooperation, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba wrapped up a four-day visit to Malaysia and Indonesia on Saturday designed to shore up ties with Southeast Asia as China expands its regional clout and Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House.
During Ishiba’s first overseas trip aside from international conferences, the prime minister met with Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, both of whom agreed to work more closely with Japan — not only in the more traditional economic, investment and energy arenas, but also on security matters.
Experts said Ishiba’s decision to prioritize Malaysia — this year’s chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an organization critical to Tokyo’s regional interests — and Indonesia — the region’s largest country and economy — was no coincidence.
The move, they noted, was meant to signal Tokyo’s continued commitment to the strategically important region, particularly to partners that, just like Japan, are seeking to mitigate any potential volatility under the incoming Trump administration.
“Indonesia and Malaysia are seeking opportunities to avoid being put under too much pressure from a more protectionist Trump administration, much like Ishiba did with his visit,” said Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
Given concerns that Washington might be less open for business under Trump, countries are now looking for alternatives and substitutes, Chong said, adding that Indonesia and Malaysia could provide opportunities for Japan and Japanese companies to develop their “China+1 strategies” — an approach that involves expanding manufacturing and sourcing to other countries to reduce reliance on Beijing.
Japan has been playing a more proactive role in the region since at least 2012. Its geostrategic shift began under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has focused on the Indo-Pacific as a new space to counterbalance China's rise.
The move has also included a push for greater security cooperation.
The reason for this is that Southeast Asia is not only critical to Japan's economic strategy but also as a supplier of energy and raw materials. Geography also plays a key role as Malaysia and Indonesia sit astride major shipping lanes, air routes and submarine cable lines that are key to Japan for trade, communications and fossil fuel imports.
While Tokyo has long been at the center of key regional production networks, it has been facing stiff competition from China over ASEAN markets, making Ishiba’s trip not only important to maintain Japan's enhanced role, but also to diversify relations while seeking greater geopolitical alignment.
Ishiba himself highlighted the region’s significance before the trip, telling reporters that Tokyo wanted to place “greater value” on relations with Southeast Asia as the international situation becomes “increasingly uncertain,” and that he would continue to ask Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur to “provide us with a steady supply of energy.”
The prime minister seems to have succeeded, with both Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur agreeing to deepen cooperation over both resources and infrastructure “to ensure energy security,” including Malaysia’s continued supply of liquefied natural gas, and “achieve decarbonization through diverse paths” such as hydrogen.
Geopolitically speaking, the visit, which also resulted in loans and a number of pledges to strengthen cooperation in education and people-to-people exchanges, also gave Ishiba the chance to cultivate personal relationships with both Anwar and Prabowo.
This was particularly important as both happen to be “rather dynamic leaders, with a deep interest in the evolving global order and who are not known to mince their words,” said Thomas Daniel from the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia.
Malaysia and Indonesia have long pursued a foreign policy based on neutrality and nonalignment.
To strike a balance between the great powers, they were among four Southeast Asian nations — along with Vietnam and Thailand — to have recently joined BRICS, a group of emerging economies that seeks to provide an alternative model to the Western-led Group of Seven. While Malaysia only became a BRICS partner, Indonesia joined as a full member.
Against this backdrop, the visit likely also offered Ishiba the opportunity to better understand Malaysia and Indonesia’s geopolitical stance and why they have sought to hedge by engaging with non-Western groups such as BRICS, said Kei Koga, an associate professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
This understanding will be crucial, as the trip also focused on expanding security cooperation with both countries — which, just like Japan, are embroiled in maritime and territorial disputes with China — especially under Tokyo’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework, a military aid program launched in 2023.
Malaysia was among the first OSA recipients, with Tokyo offering Kuala Lumpur a ¥400 million grant in late 2023 for rescue boats and maritime surveillance drones.
In his summit with Anwar, Ishiba spoke of the “steady progress” being made in OSA provision while highlighting growing cooperation in other areas such as cybersecurity, the launch of bilateral naval exercises, a memorandum of cooperation between the countries’ coast guards and increased dialogue between foreign and defense officials.
OSA also played an important part in the talks with Prabowo, with Ishiba announcing that the two sides reached a deal on the provision of high-speed patrol boats — reportedly two units — to the Indonesian Navy under this fiscal year's OSA tranche.
"Strengthening cooperation with Southeast Asia is one of the top priorities for Japan's diplomacy," Ishiba said at a joint news conference, highlighting Indonesia’s role as a center of regional economic development.
Jakarta and Tokyo also agreed to hold a third round of "two-plus-two" talks between their foreign and defense ministers later this year, as well as launch defense talks that would not only focus on maritime security but also defense equipment collaboration and technology transfer.
The latter could be key as both sides continue to weigh the co-production or co-development of a warship modelled after a Japanese vessel, possibly the upgraded Mogami-class frigate, which Tokyo hopes to export to Australia.
While the export of warships and similar assets is restricted under Japan's defense export guidelines, the joint development and manufacturing of such equipment with certain nations is allowed.
Talks on the matter had stalled under the previous Indonesian government of President Joko Widodo but experts such as Pieter Pandie, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believe that, under Prabowo, a former army general and defense minister, Jakarta will be more open to forging closer defense and security ties.
Tokyo, which signed a defense tech and equipment transfer deal with Jakarta in 2021, has been relaxing its strict defense export guidelines in recent years.
“This is something Jakarta also aims to do as part of its national defense policy, particularly as it seeks to rely more on locally made defense equipment rather than foreign-sourced equipment some time in the future,” Pandie said.
“Should the two countries agree to co-produce the Mogami frigate, I am sure the move would be aligned with Indonesia’s offset policies and long-term defense industry goals, as well as with Japan’s goals of strengthening its own local defense industry through global exports," he noted.
Key in Jakarta’s calculations, he said, will be whether or not the financial or human resources are currently available for such an endeavor, particularly as Indonesia has already placed orders and signed for several other naval assets from European partners such as Italy, France and Britain.
“Interoperability, resource availability, and operational needs will need to be weighed before deciding to acquire more naval assets,” Pandie added.
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