Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato’s bid in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election adds an extra element of unpredictability to an already complex race, and is likely to further split votes in the first round of the Sept. 27 presidential poll.
In a news conference Tuesday, Kato became the eighth LDP lawmaker to throw his hat into the ring. He highlighted his years of experience in government — especially under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — and emphasized how, if chosen as party president, he will build on the legacy of previous administrations as well as pledging to double household income.
While Kato’s chances of winning are considered minimal, his candidacy could trigger a further break-up of the conservative front, currently split among several candidates including economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, said veteran political journalist Kenji Goto.
“In many ways, Kato is aligned with Takaichi policy-wise,” said Goto. “His candidacy also reinforces the odds of a two-horse race between former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba.”
Kato has long belonged to the faction led by Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. His decision to enter the race points to a wide fracture within Motegi's faction and the diminished influence of factional unity in determining the party’s — (and the country’s) — next leader.
With Kato running on his own platform with the backing of faction members such as former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto’s son, Gaku Hashimoto, and former reconstruction minister Kosaburo Nishime, Motegi’s own bid for the party leadership will be affected significantly.
In the run-up to the election, Motegi managed to muster support from some of his faction's younger lawmakers, but his inability to rally the whole group under his own bid has drastically impacted his chances of winning the top post.
The group had long been divided over Motegi's leadership ever since he took the helm in 2022. His distance from some of the heavyweights was on full display when two of the LDP’s veterans — election committee chairwoman Yuko Obuchi and Upper House lawmaker Kazuhiko Aoki — left the group following a wave of disbandments triggered by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's decision to dissolve his own group.
Motegi’s languishing popularity among the party’s rank-and-file members will make it even harder for him to reach the final two in a contest expected to reach a runoff.
Over the past few weeks, Koizumi and Ishiba have consistently led polls both among the general public and the party’s supporters.
However, the likely splitting of votes will certainly mean that whoever wins the presidential race will have a tough time unifying the party and setting up a stable administration.
In the first round of the election, due to the unusually large number of candidates, the 367 votes assigned to the party's prefectural chapters are going to carry significant weight.
Each candidate will count on 20 votes from their support group. With eight to 10 people slated to run amid 367 party lawmakers, the candidates will need to fight for a reduced number of parliamentary votes.
Any poor showing in an election slated to take place in the next 14 months — the first test with the public after a political funding scandal that emerged late last year — could exacerbate instability and trigger a leadership crisis.
In dire straits, names like Kato — seen as an experienced and safe pair of hands albeit lackluster and uninspiring — might turn out to be useful for the party, especially after the small popularity bump he will gain with his leadership bid.
And even if he doesn't win, his leadership bid might also help raise his prospects for a cabinet post in the next administration.
“Another leadership race might be held in the not-too-distant future,” Goto said. “He’s participating in a battle to be in the pole position, so that he can run again when the time comes.”
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