The Labour Party has put an end to 14 years of successive Conservative governments in the United Kingdom after a landslide win in Thursday's general election that will give the center-left party a commanding parliamentary majority and make its leader, Keir Starmer, the country's next prime minister.
At the time of writing, Labour had secured at least 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, well above the 326 required for a majority as voters decided to give a chance to what Starmer calls a “changed Labour Party” that has sought to rid itself of its hard-left and socialist elements.
"A mandate like this comes with a great responsibility," he said after his party won at least 212 more seats than during the last general election in 2019. Thursday’s showing was Labour's best election performance since Tony Blair’s win in 1997.
The 61-year-old Starmer described the tasks of his future government as "nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold our country together."
"We have to return politics to public service," he said, adding his government will "show it can be a force for good."
In contrast, the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, suffered one of their worst defeats, winning 119 seats at the time of writing, a loss of 249 seats compared with 2019. The tally is set to be the lowest-ever total number of seats in the Tories' history as voters punished the ruling party for myriad economic and social issues affecting the country.
Not only did the party fail to win any seats in Wales, key members of the Tory government also lost their seats, including Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, as well as former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, a leading Brexiteer.
Sunak was able to hold on to his parliamentary seat, but on Friday he announced he would step down as party leader.
“The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight,” Sunak said as he conceded defeat. “There is much to learn and reflect on and I take responsibility for the loss.”
Tina Burrett, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo, said the results are an indication of public anger at 14 years of “Tory mismanagement.”
Indeed, many voters saw the Conservatives as responsible for the U.K.’s sluggish economy, cost-of-living crisis, high tax burden, housing shortages, immigration issues and the dire state of the country's National Health Service, among other issues.
While both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war generated disruption beyond the government’s direct control, overall, the Conservatives are leaving the U.K. “poorer, more divided and less internationally prestigious than when they took power,” Burrett said.
But the British election didn’t fully manage to buck the recent rightward electoral shifts in Europe, with the right-wing Reform U.K. party, led by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, winning four seats, after failing to secure any in the 2019 election.
Reform U.K. is believed to have taken large numbers of votes from the Conservatives, with Farage himself winning his first seat in the House of Commons after seven previous failed attempts.
“We are coming for Labour,” Farage said, promising that his win would be “the first step of something that is going to stun all of you.”
Despite Labour’s future dominance of the House of Commons, Starmer will have his work cut out for him as he tries to fix a barrage of domestic issues without imposing tax increases or deepening public debt.
Another top priority will be improving the country’s strained trade and investment relationship with the European Union after Brexit while seeking a new U.K.-EU security pact.
“We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbors and allies,” the party said in its manifesto, while making clear that there will be “no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.”
The future prime minister will also be immediately thrust onto the world stage. He is set to attend a NATO leaders’ summit in Washington next week, as other pressing foreign and defense policy matters loom, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
While Labour presented itself as a guarantor of British security, promising significant increases in defense spending in an increasingly unstable international security environment, the party didn’t even mention “Indo-Pacific” in its manifesto.
This stands in stark contrast with the Tories who, especially after Brexit, were the main drivers of the country’s “Indo-Pacific tilt” — an ambitious plan for Britain to become “the European partner with the broadest and most integrated presence” in Asia.
Over the past three years alone, the U.K. became a founding member of the AUKUS security pact with the United States and Australia, secured a dialogue partner status with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and is now expected to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an important trade deal that provides it with yet another entry point into the region.
At the same time, the U.K. has been rapidly deepening both military and defense-industrial ties, particularly with Japan. This has been highlighted by the signing of a visiting-forces agreement with Japan as well as a trilateral deal to develop a next-generation fighter jet together with Italy.
London and Tokyo have also deepened economic relations, signing a post-Brexit economic partnership agreement that expanded a previous deal with the EU.
But Labour’s lack of focus on the region in the election campaign doesn’t mean it will neglect the Indo-Pacific, with analysts largely expecting foreign policy continuity.
“The broad contours of existing foreign policy will be maintained,” said Robert Ward, a Japan expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
In its manifesto, Labour committed to the AUKUS deal while vowing to implement a “compete, challenge and cooperate” approach in relations with Beijing that resembles the current government’s stance — an indication that a softening of the U.K.’s China policy is unlikely.
“There will be a China-policy audit, but Labour’s framework doesn’t ultimately differ that much from that of the Conservatives,” Ward said, noting that the parameters for London’s relationship with Beijing will also be partially set by the United States, which is embroiled in an intensifying geopolitical rivalry with China.
As for Japan, Labour understands the importance of relations with Tokyo, although its views on the matter are as yet largely undeveloped, Ward added.
Still, the new Labour government will inherit a “well-formed institutional presence” in the region and an increasingly strong security relationship with Japan that complements their long-standing bilateral economic ties, he said.
To ensure bilateral ties remain on strong footing, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara is reportedly considering traveling to the U.K. later this month to swiftly forge ties with the new Cabinet, while reaffirming cooperation on the joint fighter aircraft project.
Experts say that the main factors that could potentially limit new British-Indo-Pacific initiatives would be resource constraints, particularly fiscal ones, as well as a potential return to the White House of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is known for his unpredictable stance on foreign policy and defense alliances.
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