Japan need not worry about a major shake-up in its alliance with the United States if former U.S. President Donald Trump is returned to the White House in November, a former senior official in the Trump administration said Wednesday, amid concerns that Tokyo may be in a tougher spot than prior to his first term.
“My hope is should President Trump return to office ... I have every reason to believe that the same fundamental principles that guided his leadership from 2017 to 2021 will guide his leadership again," Alexander B. Gray, a former deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff of the White House National Security Council, told a news conference in Tokyo.
“This is a very different effort than 2016,” Gray said, claiming that Trump had been a political novice after his election that year, and was still finding his footing.
Now, he said, Trump “has a cadre of people around him, informal and formal, who have exceptional government service. These are all people with long experience in Japan, who have relationships at various levels in Japanese government and society.”
Still, as the U.S. presidential campaign heats up, the knock-on geopolitical implications of another Trump term have left observers scratching their heads about what such a scenario would mean for Asia — and Japan, in particular — at a time when global tensions are inflamed by two wars and China’s increasing regional assertiveness.
These fears have only been compounded following the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with some claiming that this has left Japan without a “Trump Whisperer,” potentially putting Tokyo at a disadvantage in negotiations unless someone else is able to fill the slain leader's shoes.
The personal rapport between Trump and Abe grew after the then-prime minister became the first world leader to meet the newly minted U.S. president-elect in late 2016, when he traveled to Trump Tower to gift him a golden golf driver.
The two leaders went on to golf and dine together on numerous occasions during their overlapping times in office, with this credited by some as having a mediating effect on Trump, who spoke effusively of Abe after his death, declaring him “the greatest prime minister in the history of Japan.”
While Tokyo and Washington have maintained strong ties under U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida amid intensifying concerns over China’s regional ambitions, Japanese officials are still hedging their bets by sending out feelers in the event of another Trump term.
Last month, former Prime Minister Taro Aso reportedly even attempted to line up a meeting with Trump during a visit to the U.S. Though he was unsuccessful, the move appeared to highlight Japan’s hunt for a new conduit to the former U.S. president.
But Gray, who was at Trump Tower when Abe visited in 2016 and admitted that the pair’s rapport “helped dramatically” in improving U.S.-Japan relations, dismissed Tokyo’s apparent preoccupation with having someone who could follow in Abe's footsteps.
“I don't think there needs to be a 'Trump whisperer,' the way I've continually heard discussion here in Japan,” he said. “There doesn't need to be some sort of special whisperer when you can just look back at what President Trump did and have a sense of what he's likely to do in the future.”
Although it’s unclear if this could mean a return of Trump’s more transactional view of alliances to the forefront of U.S.-Japan relations, alignment on regional stability in Asia could help the two sides find common cause.
In particular, both are concerned about Chinese attempts to gain a strategic foothold in the vast Pacific, past the so-called second island chain linking Japan’s Izu and Ogasawara islands with Guam, Palau and the Northern Marianas, and even into the third island chain, which encompasses Hawaii and the Alaskan coast before dropping south down to New Zealand.
In recent years, the U.S. has emphasized its commitment to Pacific island nations by boosting its diplomatic presence, in a bid to counter China’s efforts in the region as it expands its political, business and security presence there — deepening ties with the Solomon Islands, in particular.
As a result of this rush, the South Pacific has seen the fastest expansion rate of new foreign diplomatic posts, according to the Lowy Institute's Global Diplomacy Index, released this week.
“What we have seen in the last several years, is China's ambitions to gain permanent military access in the second and third island chains expanding at an alarming rate,” Gray said, calling destabilization of the region “dangerous” to peace, stability and prosperity.
Another development causing unease for some is Trump’s proposed economic policies, including a call for a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S.
Although the blanket tariff suggestion has caused bipartisan ripples, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while the move would broadly raise costs for U.S. consumers, “in some cases ... tariffs are appropriate."
Biden’s team has left Trump’s earlier tariffs on China-origin goods in place.
Gray said Trump’s new plans were part of a U.S. push for a coordinated economic pushback, singling out a separate proposal by the GOP front-runner, a proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, as key to addressing the U.S. trade “imbalance.”
Rather than having a detrimental impact on diplomatic relations, Gray suggested allies may respond with a similar approach, in light of what he referred to as China’s “economic warfare.”
“This is not unique to the United States. China has economically targeted Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Norway, Lithuania ... (these are) places that have been subjected to China's economic coercion and malign influence,” he said.
“It will not be difficult to make a compelling argument to our friends and partners around the world that this needs to be a multifront, multifaceted, multilateral approach to hardening ourselves collectively against Beijing,” Gray added.
On the security front, critics have likened Trump’s approach to Washington’s alliance with Tokyo as a “protection racket,” threatening to withdraw U.S. forces in the country if Japan did not cough up more cash for their stationing there.
But the situation on the ground in Tokyo has changed immensely in the years since Trump left office, and how he would deal with Japan in a second term remains an open question.
Casting a wary eye toward China, Japan has in recent years signaled that it is now more ready than ever to shed some of the postwar constraints on its military, allocating about ¥43 trillion ($285 billion) for defense spending over five years from fiscal 2023 and setting a target of boosting annual defense outlays to around 2% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2027.
In its 2022 National Security Strategy, Japan also pressed forward with acquiring a so-called counterstrike capability that would allow it to strike targets in enemy territory to deter attacks.
The United States, having long called on Japan to do more in the defense realm, has lauded these shifts — and Tokyo’s moves could help pacify any Trump claims of it not pulling its own weight.
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