Two years after he officially became Japan’s 64th prime minister, Fumio Kishida can look to the future with cautious optimism.

As he enters his third year in power, Kishida’s trajectory offers a case study of how in the world of politics, one's fortunes are often shaped more by external factors than political acumen.

With just under a year left until next September’s Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, Kishida is on his way to becoming one of the longest-serving prime ministers in recent history.

In the last 25 years, only two former prime ministers have remained in power longer than him: Junichiro Koizumi, a maverick who turned Japanese politics upside-down in the early 2000s, and the late Shinzo Abe, Koizumi’s heir apparent, who — a decade later — went on to become the country's longest-serving leader.

Widely regarded as a protege of Abe, Kishida had long been seen as a strong candidate for the nation's top post. After a thumping defeat in his first attempt, in 2020, Kishida won the party’s leadership election a year later — effectively winning the top job in a country where the LDP has ruled for 64 of its 68-year history — thanks largely to the backing of party heavyweights from other intraparty factions.

“Many people feel that they can’t trust politics,” Kishida told a news conference announcing his candidacy for the LDP leadership in August 2021. “Our country’s democracy is in danger.”

In spite of the strong tone he employed during the campaign, Kishida's early days in power seemed to lack a defined direction and a clear ideological vision for Japan, unlike Koizumi and Abe.

In the last two years, his precarious standing within the LDP — where his faction is the fourth largest, with 46 lawmakers — has forced him to resort to meticulous political maneuvering to maintain his grip on power and draw a delicate balance among the other factions, said veteran political journalist Kenji Goto.

“It’s hard to gauge whether his policies have been a failure or a success, because his electoral promises have no visible results,” said Goto. “He might be giving the impression that he’s doing something, but you don’t really know what he’s actually doing.”

Initial pledges to depart from neoliberal policies and promote wider redistribution of wealth receded soon after he took power. Plans to drastically expand social spending and boost the country’s birthrate have yet to gain credibility with the public. Meanwhile, the decision to significantly bolster the country’s defense capabilities seems to reflect demands from conservatives and foreign allies more than Kishida’s own political creed.

While Kishida's unassuming image had afforded him the benefit of the doubt from some voters early on, in the long term the absence of tangible policy achievements have impacted his popularity, said Mikitaka Masuyama, a political scientist at the National Graduate Institute of Policy Studies.

“Compared to his predecessor (former Prime Minister Yoshihide) Suga, (Kishida) was perceived as someone with a lower profile and a gentle appearance, and initially he enjoyed surprisingly high approval ratings,” said Masuyama. “On the other hand, as to the concrete measures he has taken, he has not had much success.”

Recent opinion polls show his administration’s popularity with the public remains persistently low.

According to a TBS survey conducted over the weekend, the Cabinet’s approval rating had settled at 39.6%, remaining largely unchanged over the last few months. After an uptick following May’s Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Hiroshima, a poor handling of the flare-up around My Number prompted a significant drop in the government’s popularity, which fell to its lowest levels during the summer.

However, the Kishida administration has proven to be more resilient than the numbers show, weathering two national elections and an increasingly complex security environment.

The main reason for its durability might be found somewhere other than Kishida’s own political shrewdness.

“Elections in Japan are not so much about presenting two options and asking voters to choose one or the other,” said Masuyama. Considering the state of Japan’s political opposition, “in many districts you already know who’s going to win, even before holding an election.”

Indeed, the fragmentation of the opposition camp has been one of the primary factors behind the Kishida administration's longevity, experts have said.

As speculation over a potential snap election in the fall grows, the two largest opposition parties — the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Nippon Ishin no Kai — appear to be competing for the position of parliament's second-largest party, rather than working toward toppling the ruling bloc.

Steep obstacles to the formation of a united opposition still make the LDP the most viable option for many voters, despite weakening organizational strength outside metropolitan areas and stagnating votes at national polls.

On top of that, the absence of a suitable alternative to Kishida as party chief has so far worked in his favor, as other potential contenders appear incapable of mustering the same level of support he was able to garner two years ago.

Despite an arguably remarkable resume, incumbent LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, who has never hidden his ambitions to lead the country, lacks solid support within his own faction, while his current post makes it difficult to challenge Kishida directly. As for digital minister Taro Kono — one of the public’s top picks to be prime minister — he has traditionally been less popular among his fellow lawmakers.

Meanwhile, the conundrum over the leadership of the Abe faction, the party’s largest with 99 lawmakers, might curtail the chances of others eyeing the top slot, namely party policy chief Koichi Hagiuda and economic minister Yasutoshi Nishimura.

In this context, LDP internal dynamics, coupled with the possibility of a snap poll that could strengthen his position, might grant Kishida more leverage ahead of next year’s presidential election.

“Compared with two years ago, Kishida’s standing within the party is very strong because he still has power over personnel decisions and parliament dissolution,” said Goto. “His priority now will be his re-election in an uncontested vote next year.”

While lukewarm public opinion and a colorless leadership style might suggest otherwise, widespread political apathy and the lack of options both inside and outside of his own party mean that chances of his ouster anytime soon remain fairly low.

In the end, Kishida's ability to be in the right place at the right time might be his ultimate virtue.

“Kishida is standing in the middle of a vacuum of political power,” Goto said. “Just like in the eye of a typhoon, where the weather is sunny.”