With the number of dangerously close U.S.-China military encounters on the rise, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has slammed his Chinese counterpart’s unwillingness to meet and discuss improving crisis management mechanisms between the two powers’ militaries.
“I am deeply concerned that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms,” Austin said in a speech Saturday at the Shangri-La Dialogue regional security conference in Singapore.
“For responsible defense leaders, the right time to talk is anytime, the right time to talk is every time, and the right time to talk is now,” the U.S. defense chief stressed, arguing that dialogue is “not a reward, it is a necessity.”
Referring to a handshake between him and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu on Friday night at the start of the conference, Austin was direct in his criticism.
“The cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for a substantive engagement,” he said.
Li has snubbed an invitation for talks with Austin on the sidelines of the conference as Washington continues to refuse to lift sanctions imposed in 2018 on the senior Chinese general for allegedly assisting in the procurement of military equipment from Russia.
China’s Defense Ministry has shifted the responsibility for communication issues onto Washington, claiming that the U.S. should “show its sincerity and correct its mistakes, creating necessary conditions and atmosphere for the exchanges.”
In his speech, Austin said great powers must be beacons of transparency and responsibility, adding that the Pentagon is “deeply committed” to doing its part to keep lines of communication with China open — especially between defense and military leaders, which he deemed “essential.”
“The more that we talk, the more we can avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis or conflict,” he said, adding that conflict in the region is “neither imminent nor inevitable.”
China-U.S. relations have plummeted to fresh lows in recent years. Most recently, the Pentagon accused a Chinese fighter jet of conducting an “unnecessarily aggressive” maneuver against a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft while flying in international airspace over the South China Sea.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) responded by saying Washington should halt what it described as “frequent” spying missions targeting China, with the Foreign Ministry in Beijing saying the moves not only threaten China’s sovereignty and security, but are also “the root cause for maritime security issues.”
Beijing claims the U.S. spy aircraft was operating less than 50 kilometers from the Chinese coastline and “intentionally intruded into the training area of a PLA Navy flotilla.”
There is already a precedent for military accidents in the region. In 2001 a Chinese fighter jet collided midair with a U.S. spy plane near China’s Hainan Island, forcing the U.S. aircraft to make an emergency landing on the island. The crisis was resolved only after a tense period of negotiations.
The likelihood of a similar incident taking place today is even greater, as both sides grapple to increase their military presence in the region. But given today’s communication issues — and the prevailing atmosphere of distrust and hostility — experts say such a crisis could even veer into conflict.
The inability of Beijing and Washington to maintain even a rudimentary level of communication on defense issues is also a growing cause of concern in Southeast Asia and around the region more broadly, according to James Crabtree, executive director for Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Crabtree wrote in a recent commentary that few signs have emerged of either guardrails or increased communication in between the two superpowers over the past 12 months.
“Seen from Washington, communication is needed most of all during a crisis,” he wrote, adding that almost by definition, such communication is likely to occur when bilateral ties are poor.
Beijing’s view is a near polar opposite, he said.
“China thinks of communication as something that should happen when relations are good. If matters go south, cutting communication channels is the easy way to signal displeasure,” Crabtree wrote.
“For their part, China’s leaders claim that such open lines of communication offer a false incentive, in effect, allowing the U.S. to engage in competitive behavior safe in the knowledge that, where things go wrong, there will be a way to fix the mess.”
In his speech, Austin also highlighted Washington’s ongoing efforts to not only increase its own deterrence capabilities but also those of its allies and partners in the region.
“We're doubling down on our alliances, on our partnerships,” he said, noting that the Pentagon is stepping up planning, coordination and training with countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and Thailand in areas such as the East and South China Seas and the Indian Ocean.
“We're making our presence more distributed, more agile, and more resilient, and that will bring greater stability and security to the region,” he said.
In addition, the U.S. defense secretary pointed to what he described as “new forms of trilateral cooperation,” all of which also involve Japan. He said the two countries are operating more closely than ever with Australia and finding ways to enhance science and technology cooperation. They are also cooperating with Seoul to strengthen interoperability and explore ways to better share information about North Korean missile threats.
Austin also said he would talk with his Australian, Japanese and Philippine counterparts about stronger cooperation, especially in the maritime domain, as all four countries consider conducting joint naval patrols in the South China Sea.
Moreover, he said the Pentagon is working on critical and emerging technologies with Japan, such as uncrewed combat air systems, as well as air-defense and missile-defense technologies, including ways to counter hypersonic missiles.
“We will support our allies and partners as they defend themselves against coercion and bullying,” he said.
“To be clear, we do not seek conflict or confrontation. But we will not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion.”
Austin also turned his attention to the Taiwan Strait, saying that Washington will continue to “categorically oppose” any changes to the status quo. He stressed that the U.S. is determined to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, saying that conflict there would be “devastating.”
“Deterrence is strong today. And it's our job to keep it that way,” he said.
While the U.S. and its allies keep bolstering their military capabilities, IISS analyst Crabtree warned that too much deterrence could be one of two plausible paths to conflict in Asia, with the other being a deliberate attack.
These two paths are intertwined though, as efforts to lower the risk of a deliberate attack using reinforced deterrence may actually make an accidental clash more likely.
“The quandary is that, as both sides square off against each other, all this military activity creates tensions of its own, and also likely increases the odds of some kind of accidental encounter,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, a Chinese military insider pointed out that while attention has largely focused on the Taiwan Strait as the most likely place that a U.S.-China war could erupt, the spark for conflict could be lit somewhere else entirely.
The rising number of dangerously close encounters means that a conflict is more likely to be triggered by an accident or miscalculation in the increasingly militarized South China Sea, Zhou Bo, a former PLA senior colonel, told The Japan Times.
“The real challenge for China and the U.S. is not to avoid a new Cold War, but avoiding conflict most likely triggered by an accident.”
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