Sapporo –

A suspected bear attack in Hokkaido’s Lake Shumarinai district earlier this month has raised concerns among officials and bear experts that the island's growing population of brown bears, now estimated at nearly 12,000, is increasing the risks of deadly encounters.

Hokkaido police are investigating the May 14 disappearance of 54-year-old Toshihiro Nishikawa, who was fishing by himself at the lake, located in the town of Horokanai. An eyewitness told police a bear was seen in the area with waders in its mouth and an as-yet unidentified human head was found in the area the following day.

The news led to a rush of local and national media reports about the dangers of bears, especially at this time of year.

“Most bear attacks occur in the spring and autumn months, Particularly between April and June, when the bears are emerging from hibernation, and then again September and October, when they are eating to store fat for the winter,” says Tadayoshi Takeda, head of the prefectural section that deals with bears.

The exact number of Hokkaido brown bears is difficult to pin down. But experts agree that the population at least doubled over the three-decade period between 1990 and 2020. There were an estimated 5,200 bears in Hokkaido in 1990, with the estimate reaching 11,700 by 2020, according to prefectural data.

Roughly the size of Austria or the U.S. state of Maine, Hokkaido has recorded 150 bear attacks since 1962, with 57 deaths and 112 injuries. Four people were injured in three bear attacks last year, and in 2021 four people were killed and 10 injured, making it one of the deadliest years on record.

Bears can also cause crop damage and are especially attracted to Hokkaido farms that grow grain or corn. In 2021, damage to corn crops caused by bears accounted for half of all Hokkaido’s bear-related agricultural damage.

Hokkaido’s bear population is also growing at exactly the same time as its human population is aging and shrinking. This is particularly concerning due to the current system in place for dealing with bear attacks and bear sightings in populated areas.

In Japan, the government relies on experienced local hunters to hunt down bears. Due to strict regulations, getting a gun license in Japan is much more difficult and time-consuming than in most of the rest of the world.

But a recent joint survey by the Hokkaido Shimbun and the Hokkaido Hunters Association showed that Hokkaido hunters are aging and falling and number. That means there are fewer hunters with the experience needed to track and kill bears even as hunters’ groups find themselves getting more calls for help from local governments after bear sightings.

Tsutomu Mano, a research biologist at the Hokkaido Research Organization and one of Japan’s leading bear experts, sees the current problems with bears in Hokkaido as resulting from the way Japan manages bears and other wildlife. Mano worries that continuing to rely on aging local hunters could lead to local hunters going extinct before the bears do. He’s calling for stronger central and local government management of wildlife resources, but cites two hurdles.

“Unfortunately, very few government officers have the needed skills or knowledge of wildlife management. There’s also the problem of a lack of coordination between the various central government ministries to deal with the problems,” Mano says.

As foreign and domestic tourists, especially those from major urban areas, return to Hokkaido and other parts of Japan where bears live, experts are concerned that deadly encounters between backcountry adventurers and bears could increase.

Hokkaido warns all tourists and residents to be careful, even in the park areas of major cities. It advises people to not enter a forest or mountain alone, make noise while walking, and to bring along things like a whistle or bear spray as well.

“But understand that there are a lot of bears in Hokkaido and there is always a risk of running into one,” Takeda says.