As Group of Seven leaders gather in Hiroshima for their annual summit this week, there will be one key issue at the front of their minds: emphasizing continued unity and support for war-torn Ukraine.
Discussions on the issue will come at a crucial time for the G7 grouping itself, which has struggled to define its purpose and goals in recent years, as well as for the host country — with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida going so far as to label the summit “the most important in Japan's history” as Tokyo finds itself in an increasingly fraught security environment.
Diplomats say G7 leaders will pledge continued backing for Kyiv as it prepares for a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russia, while Tokyo, and especially Kishida, will aim to link a robust response to Moscow’s aggression with deterrence efforts in Asia — namely against what it sees as a growing threat from China.
G7 leaders have reportedly been working to craft a document specifically focusing on Ukraine, separate from the group’s joint statement, to clearly state continuity in their maximum support for the war-torn country.
The document will emphasize G7 unity in enforcing tough sanctions against Russia over the war, while also pledging additional financial support and ways to facilitate investment as leaders look toward the reconstruction of Ukraine.
As Matthew Goodman, a former top U.S. economic official and expert on international economic policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, told a recent press briefing, there will be no shortage of discussions on the war-torn country at the G7.
“Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine. That’s going to be the top issue,” Goodman said.
But it is also expected to open the door to a variety of other discussions, including regional security in the Indo-Pacific.
Higher stakes
Meeting for the second time since Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022, the stakes for G7 leaders are possibly even higher this time.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Thursday that the war continues to loom large “and will be a significant topic of conversation.”
Sanctions on Russia, in particular, will be a key issue for the leaders.
“There will be discussions about the state of play on sanctions and the steps that the G7 will collectively commit to on enforcement in particular, making sure that we are shutting down evasion networks, closing loopholes in the sanctions so that the impact is amplified and magnified in the months ahead,” Sullivan said Thursday, adding that the U.S. would introduce a fresh sanctions package associated with the separate G7 statement.
Russia has managed to weather the raft of sanctions imposed by G7 countries over the war and leaders from the grouping will be aiming to tighten the noose on Moscow, with fresh measures aimed at energy and exports.
Experts say closing loopholes, including securing support from third parties, will be a crucial task for the leaders.
“Sanctions are likely to feature prominently at this G7 meeting,” said Maria Snegovaya, an expert on Russian foreign policy with the the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I expect key issues will be sanctions compliance and enforcement, especially in nonaligned, ‘Global South’ countries.”
The term “Global South” refers to emerging and developing nations, many of which are in the Southern Hemisphere. This includes longtime Russian partner and current Group of 20 chair India and Moscow’s “no-limits” partner, China, as well as other countries that have remained neutral over the conflict.
More onerous measures will also figure into any push for negotiations to end the conflict.
Absent these kinds of sanctions — and perhaps even under them — Moscow is highly likely to maintain a capacity to fight in the long term.
“Russia has demonstrated since the start of the war a remarkable degree of adaptability to Western sanctions and, unfortunately, this situation is likely to continue,” she said, calling the conflict “relatively cheap for Russia: up to 5% of (gross domestic product) based on existing estimates,” which would be “easily manageable” for Moscow over “the next couple of years, at least.”
The result of the current sanctions regime, she says, has been Russia’s slow-paced attritional campaign that allows it to slowly “suck blood,” from both Ukraine and its G7 allies.
Return to negotiations?
While sanctions and reconstruction could make up the lion’s share of the talks on Ukraine, Sullivan said leaders would also discuss “how to set the appropriate conditions with progress on the battlefield shaping progress at an eventual negotiating table — if and when Ukraine is prepared to do that down the road.”
His remarks have hinted that G7 nations are preparing the groundwork for a return to negotiations to halt the war as Ukrainian forces step up preparations for a long-anticipated counteroffensive, though it’s unclear how deep such conversations will go.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is scheduled to join the meeting virtually, has been cool to the idea of peace negotiations with Moscow while Russian troops occupy Ukrainian territory, especially ahead of the looming counteroffensive. The Ukrainian leader is believed to be looking to solidify territorial gains in order to use that as leverage in any talks with the Russian side.
In terms of peace plans, China has offered up a 12-point proposal, though this was given a lukewarm reception by Western nations. It also dispatched this week a special envoy for a five-nation tour that includes stops in Kyiv, Moscow and three EU nations, though this has been largely met with shrugs from the international community.
According to James D.J Brown, a Russia expert and political science professor at Temple University, Japan, China’s proposal “is not really a peace plan, but a (public relations) exercise intended to portray Beijing as a responsible international stakeholder.”
Still, observers say the G7 talks could include brainstorming on what kind of role the Asian powerhouse could play in helping to end the conflict.
Indeed, China can still play a part in ending the war, Brown said, pointing to the sway Beijing currently enjoys over Moscow — one that is only expected to grow as the war rages on.
“Any peace deal will need Russia to make concessions, including some very painful ones,” Brown said. “A weakened and isolated Russia has become increasingly dependent on Beijing. Beijing can use this leverage to encourage Moscow to make the concessions needed to secure peace.”
A united front
Ultimately, the question of a peace deal will need to be addressed, though some experts say that is a matter for the future.
Rather, the priority in Hiroshima “will be to avoid any appearance of divisions and to stress the indivisibility of security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened tensions in Asia, triggering fears that China could take a page from the war and look to invade self-ruled Taiwan.
China claims the democratic island as its own and has not ruled out force to unify it with the mainland. While the U.S., like all G7 members, does not have diplomatic relations with Taipei, it is legally obliged to help Taiwan defend itself.
In a bid to head off what many observers say would be a globally devastating conflict over Taiwan, Japanese officials — including Kishida — have adopted a mantra that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” while bolstering security ties with allies and partners both in the region and farther away, including in Europe.
Despite these closer ties, cracks have emerged in the G7 over the attempt to link the fate of Ukraine with that of Taiwan, particularly following stunning remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron that the European Union should follow neither the U.S. nor China’s position on Taiwan — a stance that experts say may weaken U.S.-led deterrence efforts against Beijing.
Nevertheless, observers say Kishida, the summit’s host, will have little trouble convincing other leaders to align with Japan’s position, especially after G7 top diplomats used a meeting late last month in Karuizawa, Nagano Prefecture, to underline the grouping’s “strong sense of unity as the world navigates grave threats to the international system.”
Still, the possibility of a fresh rift emerging will certainly be on Kishida’s mind.
“Japan wants no repeat of Macron's comments, which sought to distance Europe from the United States, and which implied that European countries should not involve themselves in the Taiwan issue,” Brown said.
Renewed sense of purpose
As for the G7 itself, which was originally conceived as an economic confab, the grouping has used the Ukraine war to breathe new life into its mission and goals.
“To me, the headline (ahead of the summit) is that after ... many years of drift, the G7 has found renewed common purpose in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said CSIS’s Goodman.
Indeed, Russia’s all-out invasion has given the G7 a new sense of purpose after a long period of uncertainty about its role in global affairs.
In the years since the eruption of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. and others largely turned to the larger Group of 20 as the main vehicle for managing the response, forcing the smaller club of major Western economies into a reduced role in decision-making about shared and global challenges.
Following that, U.S. President Donald Trump used G7 summits during his four-year term as an opportunity to berate American allies, further stoking divisions.
Now, with Trump out, Russia continuing its bloody war in Europe’s hinterlands and Chinese clout — and assertiveness — rising globally, the G7 may see a chance to renew its mission.
The biggest question in Hiroshima for G7 leaders will now be how they present their vision for the kind of leadership they hope to highlight. Will they be able to project themselves as guarantors of an international rules-based system while simultaneously overcoming internal divisions?
How the leaders address this question will ultimately have long-term ramifications for the group’s fate.
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