The resurgent yen has hit a level that has traders wondering if a technical rebound may turn into a rally that derails the foreign exchange world’s favorite short.
The Japanese currency climbed more than 1% Friday, rising for a third day in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, as reduced expectations for rate hikes caused hedge funds to cover short bets from one of the biggest global macro trades of the year.
The cost to buy one dollar with yen has now dropped close to 5% from a mid-July high to below its 50-day moving average — a key support level watched by traders currently around ¥134.27. That paves the way for a decline toward ¥130, putting calls that the dollar-yen pair was destined to hit ¥140 firmly in the rearview mirror.