Seven months after Japan’s largest opposition party chose new leadership following a disastrous Lower House election in October, the party now finds itself limping into the July 10 Upper House election with low poll numbers and questions swirling around it about what will happen if it fails to keep seats, let alone gain them.

An NHK poll released Monday showed that the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s support rate was just 5.1% — ahead of ruling coalition member Komeito (4.3%) and Nippon Ishin no Kai (3.7%), but well behind the 38.4% support rate for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. A Kyodo News poll released Sunday showed that 7% of respondents will vote for the CDP under the proportional representation system — Upper House polls also see votes cast for candidates in multiple-seat districts — behind Nippon Ishin (7.7%) and far behind the LDP (27.3%).

The CDP is fielding 51 candidates in total: 31 in districts and 20 under the proportional representation system.

Kenta Izumi became the head of the CDP in November after a shake-up to the party structure following the largely unsuccessful use of unified candidates in the Lower House election, which was done in cooperation with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), Democratic Party for the People (DPP), Social Democratic Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi. Of the 213 unified single-district candidates that ran, only 59 won.

For the Upper House election, the JCP has agreed not to field candidates in only 11 of the 32 single-district seats up for re-election. While that risks splitting the opposition vote in the other districts, Izumi — as well as Rengo, Japan's largest labor confederation, which supports CDP and DPP candidates — made it clear that fundamental policy differences with the JCP, such as those on constitutional revision and the legality of the Self-Defense Forces and the emperor system, made close cooperation undesirable this time.

The party is attempting to attract voters with a message that, under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, inflation has worsened, food prices have risen and the ruling party’s economic policies to help consumers are failing.

"Additional benefits to pensioners, the immediate reduction of wheat prices and reducing the consumption tax rate — these are things that Kishida is not trying to do. But we can’t just ignore the high prices caused by 'Kishida inflation,'" Izumi said Tuesday at a debate with the other major party leaders.

The CDP’s party platform calls for a temporary reduction in the consumption tax rate to 5% — it now stands at 10% for most items. The party also wants the national child-related budget to double to 3% of gross domestic product.

On security issues, the party has rejected efforts by some in the ruling LDP, such as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to specifically raise defense expenditure to 2% of GDP, in line with many NATO countries. The CDP is instead calling for a more flexible defense budget, which they say will lead to capability improvements without the concern about meeting a specific percentage target. It also opposes the LDP’s constitutional revision proposal to clarify the legality of the SDF, saying such a measure is unnecessary.

At Tuesday’s debate, Izumi defended the CDP’s only partial cooperation with the JCP on unified candidates in this election, saying that it was about the best that could be expected. He added that last year’s Lower House results were also due to the CDP’s poor communication with voters, especially regarding its position on defense and security.

“The CDP should have brought its policies to the forefront during last autumn’s general election. For the Upper House election, the CDP’s revitalization will start with an unequivocal statement on industrial policy, economic policy and security policy,'” he said.

But as the NHK and Kyodo polls show, Izumi’s leadership has so far not convinced voters that the CDP is a viable alternative to the ruling coalition. This is due at least partially to the fact that, under Kishida and his “new capitalism” initiative, the LDP now has economic policies that voters see as similar to the CDP.

“The LDP is a catch-all party, stealing policies that the opposition should have tackled,” said Ritsumeikan University political science professor Masato Kamikubo. "It's increasing fiscal spending through the use of 'reserve funds' and calling for wage increases, support for child care and other social security measures. As a result, the public has lost interest in the opposition parties (offering similar promises) like the CDP."

The CDP controls 45 seats in the Upper House, 23 of which are up for election. Ending up with fewer than its present total could mean that Izumi will soon be out of a job, less than a year after taking over.

While it's not immediately clear who would be his successor, Kamikubo says CDP veterans such as former leader Yukio Edano and, in particular, former Secretary-General Tetsuro Fukuyama would be involved in the selection, despite being forced to resign from their posts after the 2021 Lower House election.

Izumi is particularly close to Fukuyama, having once served as his secretary. But Fukuyama, who represents Kyoto Prefecture in the Upper House, is in a tight race with a Nippon Ishin candidate and there is concern he might lose, which could damage Izumi's ability to lead.

“Edano and Fukuyama have sought to dominate Izumi's decision-making,” Kamikubo said. "Izumi is a leader without real power."