Taiwan believes Chinese President Xi Jinping is too focused on a key party meeting to extend his tenure as China’s leader to take military action now, regardless of what happens between Russia and Ukraine, according to two senior officials involved in security issues in Taipei.
The Taiwanese government has assessed the current risk of a Chinese attack to be low, even if the U.S. were to be distracted by a war in Eastern Europe, according to the officials, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to discuss security matters publicly. Communist Party leaders were prioritizing domestic stability ahead of a twice-a-decade congress and wouldn’t take any action that could jeopardize Xi’s efforts to secure a third term, the officials said.
Moreover, the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the capabilities needed to guarantee the success of any attack on Taiwan, the officials said. Still, China could exploit a shift in global attention toward Ukraine to ramp up military exercises or other efforts to influence political opinion on the island, they said.