Hokkaido is in the midst of a sharp rise in new cases of COVID-19, with other prefectures starting to follow suit in what officials warn could be the beginning of an explosive nationwide surge in new infections.

When the novel coronavirus emerged in Japan earlier this year, Hokkaido was the first region to see a surge in new cases. Having declared its own state of emergency in late February, weeks before the central government imposed one nationwide in April, Hokkaido seemed to foreshadow the spread of the virus across the rest of the country.

That the prefecture is again the first to see a spike in new cases is, in all likelihood, a mere coincidence. But as winter approaches and cold temperatures drive people indoors — where poor air circulation in close quarters could trigger cluster infections and exacerbate the spread of the virus — there may be lessons to be learned once again from the country’s northernmost island.