Experts say Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's victory in New York's primary Tuesday is good news for Japan. The former secretary of state is likely to inherit President Barack Obama's foreign policy outlook should she be elected as the first female president of the United States.
Clinton's dominating double-digit win in New York, which she once represented in the U.S. Senate, snapped Democratic rival Bernie Sanders' winning streak and made it nearly impossible for him to overtake her delegate lead.
Both Clinton and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump scored sweeping victories in the state and immediately cited them in arguing that they are all but unstoppable as their parties' presidential nominees.
For the last several months, Japanese bureaucrats have been concerned about the growing momentum surrounding Trump. But Clinton's victory is likely to force Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders out of the race, enabling Clinton to prepare for a potential showdown with Trump, a diplomatic novice who has threatened to withdraw the U.S. troops from Japan and advocated for a nuclear-armed Tokyo.
"Diplomacy is a highly professional field. Clinton is a better candidate who can create a team that can work on the Japan-U.S. alliance and the security issues with her experience in diplomacy," said Keio University professor Ken Jimbo, who specializes in the Japan-U.S. alliance.
Clinton tapped Jake Sullivan, her deputy chief of staff at the State Department, as her top national security and foreign policy staffer. She is consulting with Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy during Obama's first term, and Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, who has extensive experience with Japan.
Her pick of advisers shows Clinton's policy toward Asia and her stance against China will be in line with the Obama administration. From Obama's introduction of the Asia "pivot," Clinton, who was secretary of state during Obama's first term, has championed it — even going so far as to declare the 21st century as "America's Pacific century."
In dealing with a more bellicose China, Clinton became the first top U.S. diplomat in September 2010 to clearly state that Washington's security pact with Tokyo covers the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
Her comment followed the collision of a Chinese trawler and two Japan Coast Guard patrol boats near the contested waters. Also in 2010, Clinton voiced hopes for the peaceful resolution of the South China Sea sovereignty issue, which she said is a U.S. national interest, a contention that stoked anger in Beijing.
"She is professional, realistic and pragmatic, and she understands the important role of Japan," said Kevin Maher, a former director of the Office of Japan Affairs at the State Department during Clinton's term.
Still, some Japanese defense sources believe the U.S. could lessen its focus on Asia as the global community attempts to fend off escalating terrorist attacks by extremist groups such as the Islamic State. That could mean that Japan may be asked by the U.S. to do more in terms of defending its territory.
A Clinton presidency would also bring other concerns for Japan, including the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact.
Obama is currently facing headwinds in his push for congressional approval of the agreement. The Diet, meanwhile, is unlikely to pass the related laws to ratify the trade deal before the June 1 end of its plenary session.
Although Clinton was initially an advocate of the wide-ranging free trade agreement among 12 countries, she has backpedaled since the start of her presidential campaign — an apparent effort to win support from labor unions and manufacturers.
Ultimately, though, both Jimbo and Maher agree that Clinton will eventually support the economic framework by making policy adjustments to appease Republicans.
Information from Reuters added
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