WASHINGTON – A Pacific Rim free trade initiative would give a double-digit boost to exports from Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia by 2030, according to a recent estimate by the World Bank.
It expects the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership deal to increase exports from Vietnam by 30.1 percent, from Japan by 23.2 percent, and from Malaysia by 20.1 percent. The agreement has yet to be approved by members’ legislatures.
The bank said TPP will drastically increase Vietnamese trade in textiles and apparel.
Japan, a major exporter of electronics, would receive significant benefits as TPP will cut 87 percent of tariffs on industrial products in the 11 other countries.
Japanese exports of agricultural produce may also increase thanks to special measures to be put in place under the accord, such as a tariff-free import quota to be set aside for Japanese beef, the bank said.
Export growth for two other Asian members is still robust — 9 percent for Brunei and 7.5 percent for Singapore.
Outside Asia, double-digit rises are forecast for New Zealand at 12.8 percent and Peru at 10.3 percent.
Increases for the remaining countries range from 9.2 percent for the United States, followed by Canada’s 7.0 percent, Chile’s 5.3 percent, Australia’s 5.0 percent, and Mexico’s 4.7 percent.
The United States and 11 other countries reached agreement on TPP in October. The accord is now pending ratification and an official signing.
The pact would cover some 40 percent of the global economy. The forecast said TPP will boost the combined gross domestic product of the whole TPP zone by 1.1 percent by 2030.
By country, Vietnam is projected to see a 10 percent rise from TPP by 2030, followed by Malaysia with 8 percent and Brunei with 5 percent.
Japan is placed sixth with 2.7 percent. The impact of TPP for the United States, the largest economy in the bloc, is estimated to be the smallest at 0.4 percent.
IN FIVE EASY PIECES WITH TAKE 5