Hardware surges but PLA forces untested

Chinese military buildup diluting U.S. clout in Asia


China’s navy commissioned 17 new warships last year, the most of any nation. In a little more than a decade, it is expected to have three aircraft carriers, giving it more clout than ever in a region of contested seas and festering territorial disputes.

Those numbers testify to huge increases in defense spending that have endowed China with a military budget second only to that of the United States and fueled an increasingly large and sophisticated defense industry.

While Beijing still lags far behind the U.S. in both funding and technology, its spending boom is attracting new scrutiny at a time of severe cuts in Pentagon budgets that have some people questioning Washington’s commitments to its Asian allies, several of which have lingering disputes with China.

Beijing’s newfound military clout is one of many issues confronting President Barack Obama as he visited the region this week. The U.S. is faced with the daunting task of fulfilling its treaty obligations to allies such as Japan and the Philippines while maintaining cordial relations with China, a key economic partner and rising regional power.

China’s defense spending grew 12.2 percent to $132 billion this year, continuing more than two decades of nearly unbroken double-digit percentage increases that have brought Beijing the means to potentially alter the regional balance of power. Outside observers put China’s actual defense spending significantly higher, although estimates vary widely.

Increases in spending signal “strength and resolve to China’s neighbors,” requiring other countries to pay close attention to where Beijing is assigning its resources, said China defense expert Abraham Denmark, vice president for political and security affairs at the U.S.-based National Bureau of Asian Research.

At the same time, the American military is seeking to redirect resources to the Asia-Pacific region as it draws down its defense commitment in Afghanistan, although officers warn that budget cuts could potentially threaten plans to base 60 percent of U.S. naval assets to the region. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert recently warned that U.S. capabilities to project power “would not stay ahead” of those of potential adversaries, given the fiscal restraints.

Meanwhile, China’s navy is rapidly developing into a force that could contend with the U.S., long the dominant military player in the region.

China commissioned its first aircraft carrier, a refurbished Ukrainian hull, in 2012, and two indigenous carriers are expected to enter service by 2025, significantly increasing Beijing’s ability to project power into the South China Sea, which it claims virtually in its entirety. Analysts say China will have as many as 78 submarines by 2020, part of an expansion that has seen it leap past the U.S. and Russia in numbers of warships delivered annually, according to experts and available figures.

“That’s very much in line with the leadership’s call for China to become a major military-industrial power,” said Tai Ming Cheung, director of the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California, San Diego.

By comparison, the U.S. Navy takes on about 10 major vessels per year, and Russia averages slightly less.

Despite the impressive hardware, uncertainty still surrounds the capabilities of China’s armed forces, which haven’t seen significant combat since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Home-grown technologies have yet to be tested in battle, and training and organization are hampered by a risk-adverse attitude and overemphasis on political indoctrination that reflects the essential role of the People’s Liberation Army as the defender of the ruling Communist Party.

“Being the world leader is all about software and networking,” said Denny Roy, an expert on the Chinese military at the East-West Center in Hawaii, referring to problems with China’s command structure and communications.

Concerns about Chinese aggression focus on three scenarios: an attack on Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory; an attempt to seize the Senkaku Islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China in the East China Sea; and a move to drive off claimants to waters and islands claimed by China in the South China Sea.

All those situations pose considerable risks for Beijing, ranging from a lack of transport and resupply capabilities to the near certainty of a formidable U.S. military response in defense of its allies. Japan and the Philippines are U.S. treaty partners, and American law requires Washington to respond to any threats against Taiwan.

Although tensions with Japan have grown sharper over the island dispute, Beijing takes great pains to play down the impact its military may have on the region. Yet its explanations about its military buildup mix prickly nationalism with a proclaimed desire for closer cooperation.

Addressing navy chiefs from two dozen nations gathered at a forum in the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao on Wednesday, one of China’s most powerful generals said China is committed to maintaining peace and stability, but will never compromise its national interests.

“No country should expect China to swallow the bitter pill of compromising our sovereignty rights, national security and development interests,” said Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission.