Ten prefectures predict they will see more deaths than the state's estimate if a big earthquake occurs along the Nankai Trough off central and western Japan, based on tougher conditions, such as the collapse of seawalls and coastal embankments, a Kyodo News study found.
Among the 10, Hiroshima Prefecture forecasts a massive quake could kill 14,759 people, 18.4 times as many as the state's prediction, while Osaka Prefecture expects 133,891 to die, a 13.7-fold increase.
While the state calculated the possible death toll on the assumption that embankments will not be affected by the quake, many local governments compiled their own data assuming subsidence of embankments will increase the area of land submerged by tsunami, resulting in more deaths.