The economy this year, if described like a weather forecast, will be cloudy the first six months but turn partly sunny in the latter half.

After being overtaken by a storm in 2009, most economists, as well as policymakers, believe the economy as measured by gross domestic product will mark its first full-year expansion in three years, largely because of increased exports to Asia.

The expansion will especially be driven by robust growth in China, which has already overtaken the United States as Japan's No. 1 export destination, economists say.