Kenichi Ishida saw monthly sales at his Toyota dealership surge by up to 50 percent under the government's stimulus plans to boost car demand. Now he frets that famine will follow feast.

"I'm so afraid for next year," Ishida, 47, said in his showroom in Setagaya Ward, Tokyo. "Our sales will plunge. I know it's coming."

As government incentive programs end in Japan, Europe and the United States, automakers and dealers say they may have to continue the discounts or face a return to declining sales. Either scenario may add to losses for carmakers, including Toyota Motor Corp., the country's biggest.