The failure of Koichi Kato's revolt against Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori leaves the unpopular leader at the nation's helm -- at least for the moment.

As for Kato, who only days ago was deemed among the most likely successors to Mori, his future could be doomed.

An influential Liberal Democratic Party official said Tuesday morning that Mori must lead the government so that it can smoothly deal with upcoming tasks, including compiling the fiscal 2001 budget in late December and the scheduled reorganization of government ministries and agencies on Jan. 6, 2001.

Kato, the former LDP secretary general who leads the party's No. 2 faction, staged his revolt as Mori's public approval ratings in media polls dipped to dangerously low levels below 20 percent. The public was reacting to a continuing series of gaffes by the prime minister as well as to the resignation of scandal-tainted Hidenao Nakagawa as chief Cabinet secretary.

Kato's move served to bring to the surface the latent complaints from many junior party lawmakers that the LDP could be doomed in next summer's Upper House election if Mori stays at the helm.

But party elders eventually managed to contain the discontent and voted down the no-confidence motion early Tuesday after a marathon overnight Lower House session.

Still, senior party leaders do not rule out the possibility that the LDP's next presidential election, scheduled for September, might be brought forward to the spring so Mori could be replaced before the Upper House election in July.

Top leaders of the party's largest faction led by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto repeatedly said before the Monday vote that it is one thing for the party to unite in voting down the no-confidence motion but quite another whether Mori should continue to lead.

While Mori's future remains to be played out, Kato appears to have squandered his own by flinching in his game of chicken with Mori.

That Kato swerved before the final straightaway -- by deciding to abstain from the Lower House vote on the no-confidence motion that he had earlier pledged to support -- has apparently left a sense of betrayal in public sentiment that seemed hopeful old Japanese politics were on the brink of a breakthrough.

Kato's much ado about nothing not only could undermine his credibility among voters but could further fuel their distrust in Japan's political establishment.

Now that his open rebellion has been put down, chances of him taking over for Mori as LDP chief and prime minister appear to be almost nil. A senior party figure said last week that it would be "100 percent unlikely" that Kato would become prime minister as an LDP member.

Kato called his Monday night decision an "honorable retreat," and his last-minute decision to avoid an all-out confrontation with party elders may have left room for his future revival. But his clout as a potential leader will no doubt be undermined by his humiliating defeat.

Also, Kato may see his faction splitting up. About a dozen members, including former Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda, openly rebelled against Kato before the Monday vote by saying they would not obey him.

Of the 45 Lower House members who belong to the Kato faction, only 20 followed in abstaining from the Lower House vote; the rest joined the party mainstream in supporting Mori.

LDP senior officials predict the breakup of Kato's faction is just a matter of time. Ikeda and other dissenters did not show up at a Tuesday meeting of the Kato faction.

Although Kato pledged to regain faction unity by quelling his dissenters, even younger members who were ready to follow Kato's lead doubt his word.

"If (all the Kato members) are able to join hands once more, then it is even more farcical (than the abstention from the no-confidence motion vote)," said Nobuteru Ishihara, who leads a cross-factional group that has openly challenged Mori's leadership. "It will be more difficult for the public to understand (what we do)."

During Tuesday's meeting, Norio Sugiyama openly criticized Kato, a diplomat-turned-lawmaker credited for his policy expertise, for lacking the ability to deal squarely with a veteran tactician like LDP Secretary General Hiromu Nonaka.

"Although Mr. Kato is well versed in policy matters," he said, "you have no sense in handling political situations."

Nonaka handled Kato's rebellion by applying pressure to those sitting on the fence, threatening to expel anyone who votes for or abstains from the opposition-proposed motion.

Nonaka's threats worked despite being somewhat transparent: Carrying them out would have led to the LDP-led coalition losing a majority in both diet chambers.

In fact, Nonaka was quick to make peace with the rebels after the motion was voted down, saying the Kato and Yamasaki faction members who did not show up for the vote would not be punished.

In a news conference at the crack of dawn Tuesday, Kato admitted that he lacked strategy and failed to obtain firm consensus among his faction members before he abruptly called on Mori to resign 12 days ago.

Mainstream party members said that since Kato did not have a clear strategy, they wonder if he might have begun his ill-fated campaign under the influence of liquor?

Kato originally revealed his rebellion plan at a dinner gathering with intellectuals and media people at a Japanese restaurant Nov. 9 -- one day before he publicly announced it.

The opposition camp, which had shown interest in cooperating with Kato, was also left puzzled over his real intentions.

Although he stood little chance of gaining a post-Mori endorsement from LDP elders -- regardless of whether he succeeded in ousting the prime minister -- he continued to rule out leaving the LDP, which would have been the only path to power left open to him.

Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan who had repeatedly indicated he would support Kato as prime minister once he leaves the LDP, said he will no longer invite a Kato faction into an alliance with the DPJ.

At least not in the coming few years.

Liberal Party leader Ichiro Ozawa -- a former LDP member who mounted a successful revolt in 1993 that resulted in a no-confidence motion passing against then Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa -- had a more definite opinion.

He called the about-face "the biggest disappointment that the LDP ever gave the Japanese people."

Gloating and criticism

Senior members of the ruling coalition hailed the defeat early Tuesday of a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.

Liberal Democratic Party policy chief Shizuka Kamei said the rejection was "natural" and that submitting the motion was wrong.

Kamei said he regrets that LDP faction heads Koichi Kato and Taku Yamasaki had vowed to support the motion, although they in the end reneged and did not participate in the vote.

Former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who heads the LDP's largest faction, questioned the timing of the attempt by Kato and Yamasaki to topple the Cabinet.

"I'm wondering if there were any other timing (factors) in light of national interests," Hashimoto said. Takenori Kanzaki, leader of New Komeito, said: "Although there may be criticism of Mr. Kato, I think he will remain an influential figure in the LDP."

Chikage Ogi, chief of the New Conservative Party, another member of the ruling bloc, said: "It's great that we could reject (the motion) solemnly.

"We will continue to support the Mori government and strive to achieve an economic recovery by passing a supplementary budget."

Ogi said she could not understand why the two rebel faction chiefs broke ranks with the LDP mainstream and tried to oust Mori.

Yukio Hatoyama, head of the Democratic Party of Japan, voiced dissatisfaction with the last-minute withdrawal of support for the motion by the Kato and Yamasaki groups.

"It proved how far the Diet is from the people's minds," he said. "This betrayal resulted in not only finishing their political careers, but also in increasing the people's disappointment in politics. It's a great offense."

DPJ Secretary General Naoto Kan said the LDP's internal strife will continue.

"We will take advantage of this for next year's House of Councilors election and the ensuing House of Representatives election," Kan said. "It's regrettable that Mr. Kato was defeated without fighting."

Said Tetsuzo Fuwa, head of the Japanese Communist Party: "The Mori Cabinet managed to hold on by the power of its numbers and threats. It is significant that the LDP proved it lacks the ability to change its political style by itself."

Fuwa vowed to continue the opposition campaign to oust Mori, "which the people have called for."

Said Takako Doi, chief of the Social Democratic Party: "The rejection can be described in just one word: disappointing. We have been betrayed.

"It became clear that the LDP cannot conceal its open seams with adhesive tape by turning its back on the people's voices."