With China expected to assume a greater presence as a regional power both economically and militarily early next century, Japan appears groping for a way to get along with its giant neighbor without disrupting its decades-old security partnership with the United States.

Some political leaders suggest Japan's future relationship with the U.S. and China should form an equilateral triangle, with each of the tips an equal distance from the other. But some advise caution, saying China must first become a true democratic nation before it can even be considered for such a relationship.

Either way, China is bound to have a major effect on the security balance in the Asia-Pacific region, and defense experts say it is time for Japan to chart a course of its own, one that could veer away from the strategy of the U.S.

Speculation on China's diplomatic intentions varies, but several experts agree that Beijing will strive to avoid causing an irreconcilable confrontation with the U.S. or any other major power in the coming decades because it realizes its prosperity will soon depend on its ability to live by the rules of a global free trade system.

"The most likely scenario would be that China develops in a way that will oblige it to cooperate with the global community, assuming internationally responsible roles," says Ikuo Kayahara, a professor of international affairs at Takushoku University and a retired Ground Self-Defense Force major general.

"Otherwise, China will not be able to feed its population, which could reach 1.6 billion by 2030."

With fully a fifth of the world population within its borders and an economy that has registered torrid growth above 7 percent, China could become the world's largest economy in absolute terms by 2020 if global trade is completely liberalized, according to an estimate by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

By that time, China could account for nearly 15 percent of global GDP, followed by the U.S. with 11 percent, and Japan with 5 percent.

One hot kitchen indeed

East Asia as a whole is forecast to become the most prosperous region in the world, outstripping North America and the European Union in GDP, population and energy consumption.

It is also "the region most likely to witness a major war" over the next quarter century, according to a report released in September by the U.S. Security Commission/21st Century, a Washington-backed think tank mapping out U.S national security strategy for the coming century.

China spent an estimated 5.3 percent of its GDP on defense in 1998, whereas the U.S. spent 3.4 percent and Japan 1 percent, according to The Military Balance 1999/2000. Beijing has augmented its defense budget by more than 10 percent each year for 11 years in a row in its push to modernize the People's Liberation Army.

On the economic front, China has been playing the good Samaritan.

Last year Beijing offered to liberalize major areas in its economy to successfully conclude talks with the U.S. -- its second-largest trading partner -- and achieve backing for its long-awaited entry into the World Trade Organization.

On the other hand, Beijing stepped up its tough rhetoric against Taiwan last month, warning that it would not rule out military action if the island drags its feet on reunification talks with the mainland. The move, apparently meant to influence Taiwanese voters in the island's March 18 presidential election, may also rouse anti-Beijing sentiment in the U.S. Congress, which is expected to vote this summer on granting China NTR (normal trading relations) status.

If Beijing attacks Taiwan, which it calls a "renegade province," Tokyo may find itself asked to provide logistic support for responding U.S. forces due to a 1997 revision in the Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines that paves the way for Tokyo to help in contingencies in unspecified "areas surrounding Japan."

The vaguely defined geographical phrase greatly bothers Chinese diplomats, who have strongly warned that Beijing will not tolerate any attempt by Tokyo or Washington to meddle in its relations with Taiwan under the new guidelines.

Tokyo and Washington have been evasive in addressing China's concern, explaining that the concept behind the guidelines' scope is "situational, not geographic."

The latest U.S. Annual Defense Report says that China, on par with Russia, could emerge as a global rival of the U.S. in the years beyond 2015, and notes that China has already acquired a strategic nuclear arsenal that can reach the U.S. mainland.

But for East Asian countries, China possesses another threat in its growing fleet of naval warships. Kayahara predicts that by the 2020s, China will possess a couple of small aircraft carriers, 50 nuclear-powered submarines and a fleet of destroyers capable of enforcing its 200-nautical-mile zone.

Shigeo Hiramatsu, a former specialist on China at the National Institute for Defense Studies, said China began staking out disputed islands in the oil-rich South China Sea in the late 1980s.

"At present, China is only seizing those islands and not disturbing navigation (around the territories). But we cannot deny the possibility of that happening in the future," Hiramatsu said. The South China Sea is a thoroughfare for 90 percent of the oil tankers that supply Japan.

But welcome to the club

Japan's basic policy on China is to encourage it "to become a more constructive partner in the international community, while further developing Japan-China ties through greater exchanges at all levels," the Foreign Ministry says in the latest issue of its annual Diplomatic Blue Book.

Japan has built up strong economic ties with China, with bilateral trade reaching a record $66 billion in 1999. Japan is China's largest trading partner and largest aid donor, while China is Japan's second largest trading partner, behind the U.S. Last July, Japan became the first major industrialized country to conclude bilateral negotiations with China for its entry into the WTO.

But political ties have not been smooth sailing, with frequent outbursts of nationalist sentiment dredging up past history or surfacing in territorial rows.

Not a few Japanese lawmakers and scholars have drawn Beijing's ire in recent years by claiming, for example, that the 1937 Nanjing Massacre by the Imperial Japanese Army was a fabrication. Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, in his speech Sunday at the start of the annual session of the National People's Congress, said China must "keep up its guard against the attempts of a handful of ultraright forces in Japan to obstruct and undermine Sino-Japanese relations."

The gap in the two government's perceptions of each other was clearly spelled out during Chinese President Jiang Zemin's 1998 visit to Japan. Jiang was strongly demanding a fresh apology for Japan's wartime aggression whereas Tokyo had hoped to put the past behind and invite Beijing to build a future-oriented partnership.

While China later withdrew the demand, experts say the episode showed that Tokyo still has a long way to go in building mutual trust with Beijing.

Under the 1997 defense guidelines, Japan basically appears to be pursuing the same direction as in past decades - cementing its 49-year-old alliance with the U.S.

With its "exclusively defensive" policy, Japan does not possess the capability to project military power overseas. It has no aircraft carriers, intercontinental missiles or -- so far -- air tankers for in-flight refueling. The world's only victim of nuclear weapons, Japan pledges not to possess nor produce a nuclear arsenal.

"In the foreseeable future, Japan will have to continue to depend on the U.S. security umbrella," said a Defense Agency senior official.

But many experts argue that a U.S.-based security policy might not be enough to secure Japan and the region.

The Commission on Japan's Goals in the 21st Century, an advisory panel to Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, said in a report released in January that Japan should step up cooperation with Asian neighbors, especially with China and South Korea, to build a multinational framework in East Asia to cooperate on a variety of issues such as security, economy and the environment.

The report admits that keeping the alliance with the U.S. is the best choice for Japan in terms of cost-effectiveness and international trust. But it also suggests that Tokyo, instead of simply following its ally's decisions, speak and act using its own judgment and intelligence, noting that the U.S. has shown a tendency over the past decade to deviate from its role as the world's policeman and "act based on its illogical self-interest."

"In the post-Cold War era, Japan's interests, though consistent with those of the U.S. most of the time, are not always identical with them," says Tokyo University professor Akihiko Tanaka, who helped compile the report. "If only to keep a good relationship with the U.S., Japan will have to take on fairly positive security roles in Asia."

For example, Tanaka says, Japan should do more confidence-building with Asian neighbors both at official and unofficial levels, and make efforts to take part in security talks on the Korean Peninsula now being conducted among the U.S., China and the two Koreas.

Tomohisa Sakanaka, president of Tokyo-based Research Institute for Peace and Security, maintains that for Japan to pursue a more independent security policy, it must obtain the capability -- and political will -- to deal with regional conflicts of limited scale.

"It's unthinkable that the interests of the U.S. and Japan will coincide 100 percent, with both countries always acting together," he says. "There will be situations in which the U.S. has less vital interests than Japan."

Back to the balancing act

Singapore's senior minister Lee Kuan Yew said in a recent media interview that he expects Japan to act as a balancer in the region while keeping its alliance with Washington.

"At this moment, the region's balance is maintained by the U.S. But in the future, the U.S and Japan would need to join together to balance China," Lee told the Asahi Shimbun daily. "That way, Japan can work as a balancer more naturally (than doing it alone)."

"The U.S.-Japan alliance is very important for the security of East Asia," says Sun Wen Qing, Tokyo bureau chief of China Youth Daily, a newspaper in Beijing.

However, Sun warns that as long as Japan remains unable to wipe out the impression that it always follows U.S. foreign and defense policies, China is unlikely to place its trust in Japan, especially over security matters.

Many Japanese leaders say they are aware of such suspicions on China's part.

Democratic Party of Japan President Yukio Hatoyama, insists that Japan should maintain a "sound" distance from the U.S., calling for a constant review of the American military presence in Japan.

The opposition leader even went on to propose that Japan launch an intelligence satellite over the Sea of Japan that can be jointly used by Asian countries, including China.

Tokyo International University professor Tetsuo Maeda claims that forging a multinational security framework in East Asia would help Japan "scatter" U.S. influence upon itself.

"If each European nation had formed bilateral alliance with the U.S. (as Washington's Asian allies do), they would have had to accept a more subordinate relationship with the U.S.," Maeda says.

But as long as Japan remains shackled by a spate of domestic legal restrictions on its overseas security roles, the question of whether it can participate in -- much less take the initiative to build -- such an international security framework is another story, they said.

"It all depends on how Japan's current debate on the Constitution will develop. Without the right to collective defense, Japanese troops cannot work with multinational forces," claims Satoshi Morimoto, a researcher at Nomura Research Institute and a former Ground Self-Defense Force officer.

Morimoto stresses that no matter how the regional security talks develop in the future, Japan's security core will remain in its alliance with the U.S.

"Asian nations want Japan to play its part for the sake of Asia as long as Japan is tied to the firm alliance with the United States," he says. "Everybody (in Asia) says a firm Japan-U.S. alliance provides relief for Asia."

But Parliamentary Vice Foreign Minister Ichita Yamamoto admits that while the alliance with the U.S. is the keystone for Japan's security, it has also restricted Japan's efforts toward multipolar diplomacy.

The Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker says the postwar alliance with the U.S. has been a right choice. "Now, Japan's homework is to find ways to pursue its own diplomacy without hurting its ties with the U.S."