With the collapse of a fragile ceasefire in Aceh, the Indonesian government has decided on a military solution to this long-festering problem. The Free Aceh Movement (GAM) has fought a prolonged battle for independence while the Indonesian government is only willing to accommodate limited autonomy and a more favorable revenue-sharing formula for the provinces' energy exports. Thus efforts to revive the peace process in Tokyo were beset by the very different road maps of the combatants.
While the battles escalate, the interests of the Acehnese suffer: they are caught in the crossfire between guerrilla forces and the Indonesian military. GAM may not be wildly popular among locals and is also guilty of excesses, but is seen by many as the lesser of evils in a highly polarized situation where human rights abuses have been widespread. Some analysts argue that less draconian measures might have opened space for moderates, but now worry that it may be too late for that option.
In the wake of former President Suharto's ignominious demise in 1998, Indonesia has been plagued by political instability. In the post-Suharto era, the process of democratization has been marred by eruptions of violence all over the archipelago. There is considerable speculation that the military has served as both arsonist and firefighter in some of these outbreaks.