We should consider ourselves lucky, I guess. China is engaged in “salami-slicing” in East Asia — and the South China Sea in particular — slowly extending its reach and influence through a series of small steps that test adversaries’ mettle by walking up to, but not crossing, red lines that would trigger conflict.

Halfway around the world, Russia is also testing adversaries, but its actions are far more destructive, prompting European officials to warn that Moscow appears to be “at war” with countries it hasn’t invaded (yet). Officials and experts charge Moscow with waging “hybrid war,” a term that encompasses a range of actions that are unmistakably aggressive and dangerous. Those moves are a testimony to Russian creativity and desperation. They are also harbingers of conflict to come.

Russia and its proxies have been testing Western defenses and determination for years. “Little green men,” Russian soldiers who did not wear uniforms and claimed to be independent fighters, were in the vanguard of the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russian hackers have probed, infiltrated and launched cyberattacks against European governments. In some cases, the miscreants are official Russian military units; in other cases, they’re ordinary criminals and civilians conscripted or enticed to labor on behalf of Moscow.