For decades, Europe believed that economic interdependence could tame Russian aggression. That illusion collapsed when Moscow invaded Ukraine.

Now, as talk of the war ending gains momentum — while the situation remains fickle at best — Europe faces a new challenge: How to deal with Russia going forward. Isolation is not a viable long-term strategy, but neither is a return to naive rapprochement.

In the summer of 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood before the German parliament and delivered a speech in near-perfect German. This moment marked the start of a profound miscalculation on Europe’s part, based on the belief that Russia could be integrated through trade, diplomacy and economic reliance.