Far right lurks in the shadow of Germany's coalition dilemma

In the aftermath of Sunday’s election in Germany, the political landscape resembles a hall of mirrors: Every reflection reveals a paradox.

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), having campaigned on a promise to restore order to the nation’s chaotic immigration system, emerged victorious — but it will now likely find itself shackled to a coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), that rejects its core agenda. All the while, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the second strongest force in the country’s politics.

In an election meant to be corrective, Germany will continue to find itself in a vicious cycle, where the compromises required to govern only deepen the divisions they aim to heal. The country’s mainstream parties, constrained by coalition politics and ideological rigidity, are fueling the very extremism they claim to oppose.

The CDU’s victory will inevitably be diluted by the SPD, a party that prioritizes humanitarian imperatives over tackling public discontent. It is the very paralysis that has created the vacuum the AfD continues to fill with alarming speed. On Sunday, the party managed to double its previous 2021 electoral result.

Yes, we should appreciate the reality that our democracy is alive and well and that over 80% of Germans went to the polls. But it is just five minutes to midnight. The question that everyone concerned about democratic stability has is whether the next government can address legitimate grievances over immigration. If it can’t, Germany faces the conceivable scenario that the AfD could gain power in the not-so-distant future.

After all, immigration has been Germany’s defining political fault line since former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision in 2015 to welcome over a million Syrian refugees. Initially hailed as a moral triumph, captured by the Merkel mantra “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do it”), it has now become an albatross around Germany’s neck and one that has caused fractures in the social contract.

The system is buckling. By the end of June, approximately 3.5 million refugees with varying types of residency permits were living in Germany, overwhelming local governments and igniting resentment in communities already strained by housing shortages and stagnant wages.

High-profile attacks allegedly perpetrated by asylum seekers, including the fatal stabbing of a police officer in Mannheim last year, the murder of a two-year old in January and an attack on a trade union demonstration two weeks ago, have eroded public trust and safety.

All this has allowed the AfD, founded in 2013 in opposition to Eurozone bailouts, to adroitly cast or, rather, radicalize itself as the voice of the forgotten Germany. Its entire shtick is based on leveraging anti-immigrant rhetoric paired with neo-Nazi sympathies — to the extent that the party is under surveillance by the German intelligence services.

Yet Sunday’s result reveals that this strategy is working. Even worse, in eastern Germany — especially in states such as Thuringia, where the party received almost 40% of the vote — the AfD is no longer a protest vehicle but a mainstream player.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz, on course to becoming Germany’s next chancellor, campaigned as a pragmatist, vowing to end what he termed the “era of unchecked migration.” His proposals — a cap on asylum seekers, expedited deportations and stricter border controls — were a direct repudiation of Merkel’s policy.

But politics, as the adage goes, is the art of the possible. With the Greens sidelined and the libertarian Free Democratic Party not even passing the parliament’s 5% threshold, the CDU’s only viable partner is the SPD, which is ideologically opposed to Merz’s vision.

For instance, its manifesto states that the party prefers voluntary departures to deportations, considering these “more humane.” The SPD also rejects the handling of asylum claims in non-European Union countries, which could streamline processes.

The SPD fears that capitulating to the CDU would alienate its progressive base, which views immigration restrictions as a betrayal of postwar humanism. Yet this stance ignores the visceral frustrations of voters who see AfD politicians not as radicals but as the only party speaking candidly about their daily struggles.

The most likely outcome is that a CDU/SPD coalition produces a milquetoast agenda that satisfies no one. But a reluctance to acknowledge that Willkommenskultur, Germany’s “welcome culture,” is unsustainable without order will only propel the AfD further. The country cannot accept hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers annually while ignoring the strain on housing, schools and social cohesion that has left 68% of Germans saying that the country should accept fewer refugees.

And when mainstream parties conflate compromise with capitulation, they cede political terrain to those who traffic in lies and absolutes, as we have seen in France, Austria, Italy and the Netherlands.

The AfD’s rise is not an aberration but a reflection of a system that has too often prized moral posturing over practical governance. If it cannot agree on the measures that must be taken, a CDU/SPD coalition will not curb the far right’s appeal. It will validate it.

But to render the AfD obsolete, both parties must address the failures that feed its growth. This means implementing smarter immigration policies, not just stricter ones — streamlining asylum procedures, enforcing existing EU law and rebuilding public trust.

Democracies die in increments. First, they lose the courage to speak hard truths. Then, they lose the ability to act on them. Germany still has time, though not much, to choose a different path.

If the next governing coalition fails to tackle the issue, the AfD will do it for them. And history — particularly in Germany — has shown what happens when extremists are handed the task of national renewal.