Ishiba's future in question as support from allies wavers

Before last Sunday's election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba committed to assuming “responsibility” if the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito failed to achieve the lowest definition of success: a simple majority of 233 seats in the Lower House.

He failed and did so spectacularly.

The coalition obtained 215, and not even Keiichi Ishii, the leader of Komeito, was able to escape the electoral disaster as he lost his own seat. He resigned on Thursday.

The coalition lost 64 seats from the start of the campaign on Oct. 15, but 73 seats if you count from the dissolution of the Lower House on Sept. 9. Ishiba refused to endorse 10 LDP Diet members linked to the so-called party ticket reporting scandal, which is referred to as the “slush fund scandal” by most Japanese media. The situation highlights how poorly former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida managed the entire affair.

And yet, Ishiba, who has been in office for just 30 days, has become famous for flip-flops, and is doing it again. Now attempting to cling to power, the prime minister said, “In this severe security and economic environment, national politics cannot afford to stagnate for even a moment.” He added, “I want to fulfill my duties by protecting Japan.”

This is political babble for: As you all know, I am stubborn, and I have not even moved into the official residence yet.

But there were other losers and one big winner in this election. Nippon Ishin no Kai lost five seats, but more importantly, it lost momentum to move beyond its power base in the Osaka region. The Democratic Party for the People was a big winner, increasing its seats fourfold. However that number could have been even more but it had to give up on three seats in the proportional portion of the election due to an absence of candidates. Does Ishin’s reduced expectations and the DPP’s increased bargaining position make them more amendable to joining the LDP?

Beyond the numbers, their policy alignment is striking.

A pre-election Yomiuri Shimbun survey of the major political parties' critical social, economic and policies confirms that the LDP, Nippon Ishin and the DPP align very closely. Notably, 80% of these three parties support nuclear power, whereas 79% of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and 54% of Komeito support its early elimination.

But the sharpest area of division is in national security. Those who strongly support deploying a counterstrike capability include the LDP at 82%, Ishin at 90% and the DPP at 67%, while those who oppose it include the CDP at 69% and Komeito at 50%.

Those who strongly support a stronger defense include the LDP at 94%, Ishin at 96% and the DPP at 84%, while those who oppose it include the CDP at 69% and Komeito at 40%. As for the Japanese Communist Party, 100% oppose both counterstrike and a stronger defense.

When it comes to strengthening relations with China, which is code for prioritizing economics over security risks, 92% of Komeito, 85% of the JCP and 58% of the CDP agree while only 40% of the LDP does.

All of this shows that Komeito aligns more closely with the liberal wing of the CDP than the LDP.

If Ishiba is truly serious about “protecting Japan,” he should be doing whatever it takes to convince Ishin and the DPP to join a new ruling coalition and replace Komeito.

And if they condition their agreement on a new LDP leader, then Ishiba should agree to resign. And yet, pending another flip-flop, Ishiba is set on continuing the severely weakened ruling coalition, even into a minority government.

Time is of the essence as the next prime minister needs to be approved by a special session of parliament with its newly elected members within 30 days of the election (by Nov. 26).

Reportedly, the ruling and opposition parties are discussing an earlier start date of Nov. 11, given that the Japanese prime minister is due to travel for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and Group of 20 summits.

The question now that is being discussed is whether either or both the DPP and Ishin will support the LDP nominee, thereby ensuring his or her victory, or if they will nominate their own candidates? That would prevent anyone from securing a majority and lead to a runoff — a very rare occurrence in Japanese politics — between the two candidates with the most votes.

DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki has just rejected leadership talks with the CDP and announced he will be his party’s nominee for prime minister, so the ball is now in the hands of Ishin’s head, Nobuyuki Baba. It is highly probable now that Baba will be the Ishin nominee, forcing a runoff between Ishiba and Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the CDP.

If the votes unfold as anticipated, and party unity remains in place, the LDP nominee would be heavily favored. Six of the independents who won the election have just announced they will join the Liberal Democratic Party Parliamentarian Group, raising the ruling coalition's total seats to 221, just 12 short of a majority.

On the other hand, the CDP nominee would require nearly the entire opposition to support him in the runoff to become prime minister, which is unlikely to happen given the DPP and Ishin’s aversion to the CDP. So far, only the Japan Communist Party's head, Tomoko Tamura, has announced her party will positively support Noda.

A very tight schedule over the next two weeks favors Ishiba squeaking out a win in a runoff in the Lower House that will likely start on Nov. 11.

But that is the beginning of the story, not the end. With Ishiba already polling close to the perceived danger zone of 30%, pressure is steadily building within the LDP to replace him as party leader well before the Upper House election that will be held in July 2025.