Longstanding suspicions about the accuracy of China’s official gross domestic product growth data have spurred a market for alternative calculations, which kicked into action this week after Beijing announced its economic expansion for 2023 was in line with its annual target of around 5%.
There’s a consensus that the economy grew last year, propelled by a rebound in consumption after pandemic restrictions were lifted. That’s readily visible in data compiled outside China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) — such as the number of domestic flights, or the revenue growth of consumer-focused companies.
What’s also agreed between official and independent estimates is that a sharp drop in real estate construction, alongside strained local government finances and falling exports, posed downward pressure on the world’s second-largest economy.