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Tom Orlik
For Tom Orlik's latest contributions to The Japan Times, see below:
A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 2. In the event of a conflict with China, Taiwan would face a military that rivals that of the U.S.
WORLD / Politics
Jan 9, 2024
Xi, Biden and the $10 trillion cost of war over Taiwan
The price tag — equivalent to about 10% of global GDP — dwarfs the blow from the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic and 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / Economy
May 8, 2023
Powell’s bet against recession looks good — minus the credit crunch and a standoff
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reckons the U.S. economy can skirt recession. But the odds are stacked against him — thanks to banking, politics, and even the weather.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / Economy
Jan 31, 2023
What does China's pivot from 'zero-COVID' mean for global inflation?
China’s reopening could be the single most important factor for global growth in 2023, but there is caution that it could increase the price of oil and lift costs for consumers.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / Economy / FOCUS
Nov 14, 2022
From bad to worse? Next year’s economic risks are already here.
History says the Federal Reserveu2019s high-speed interest-rate hikes may well tip the U.S. into recession in 2023. Few will be surprised if spiraling natural-gas prices do the same for Europe.
Japan Times
BUSINESS
Dec 13, 2021
What could possibly go wrong? These are the biggest economic risks for 2022
Governments spent heavily to support workers and businesses in the pandemic. Many now want to tighten their belts.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / FOCUS
Nov 2, 2021
Supply chain crisis risks taking the global economy down with it
New indicators underscore the extremity of the problem, the worldu2019s failure to find a quick fix and how in some regions the Big Crunch of 2021 is still getting worse.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / FOCUS
Aug 2, 2021
Xi Jinping’s capitalist smackdown sparks a $1 trillion reckoning
The tutoring sector crackdown has triggered a growing realization that the old rules of Chinese business no longer apply.
Japan Times
BUSINESS / ANALYSIS
Jul 6, 2021
When will China rule the world? Maybe never.
A combination of reform failure, international isolation and financial crisis could halt China before it reaches the top.
COMMENTARY / World
Mar 17, 2017
Time to hit pause button on panic over China's economy
The buzzword for China's leaders in 2017 is stability. The current trajectory puts them on track to achieve it.

Longform

Hideo Shimoju points to a possible site that his fellow neighbors may relocate to. Such relocations have happened before, but not preemptively.
In disaster-prone Japan, some communities consider major moves