One win, one loss. It’s not a ratio any team relishes with two Rugby World Cup pool games to play. But that’s where Japan and Samoa find themselves coming into their head-to-head clash in Toulouse, France, on Thursday.
Neither side needs to stress over the calculus; the equation is pretty simple. Win this game and keep your World Cup dreams alive. Lose, and it’s back to the drawing board for the next four years. After the 80 minutes elapse, one proud rugby nation will be staring down the barrel of a gun. The other will have its finger on the trigger.
Were the stakes not as high, this would still be billed as a potential thriller. When the two teams met in the Pacific Nations Cup in July, Samoa edged out a 24-22 victory. Japan won the previous three encounters, including a 38-19 triumph in the city of Toyota at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Samoa won the three before that.
Even now, there is little to divide them: Both have five points from two games; both have scored six tries in the competition so far; and only one point separates them for total scored, Japan’s 54 to Samoa’s 53. Moreover, they currently sit shoulder to shoulder in the world rankings, at 12th and 13th, respectively.
“(Our last victory over Samoa) was a long time ago, and this is a completely different tournament,” Japan coach Jamie Joseph said at his prematch news conference. “You can’t really compare the Samoa of four years ago to Samoa now. ... They showed incredible resilience (last week) against a very strong Argentina team and we’ve got to be at our best if we’re going to beat them.”
Joseph has made two changes to the Brave Blossoms team that lost 34-12 to England. Dylan Riley gets the nod at outside center over Tomoki Osado, while Lomano Lemeki lines up at full-back after a strong showing in Japan’s last outing, including the second-most meters carried by any Japanese player (54).
“Lemeki played well for us when he came on in a difficult game for a player who hasn't played that level of rugby for quite some time,” Joseph said. “I thought he did a really good job because of the situation he was put into. We have a lot of confidence he can do that again.”
Lemeki wants to repay his coach’s trust by keeping a “calm mind” this Thursday.
“I’m the type to just attack,” he said. “But I want to make sure I stay patient and use my kicks for territory."
Japan doesn’t need to overanalyze Samoa. The latter’s squad may have been boosted by a few ex-All Blacks, but the men from Apia never deviate from the South Sea Islander way. It will be crash, bang, wallop: Dominant tackles and box-office offloads; blue-shirted juggernauts taking it to the gain line; a demolition derby with a touch of Grand Prix finesse.
That’s not to say there are no brains directing the brawn. This is arguably the most well-drilled Samoan side to enter a Rugby World Cup, a fact that hasn’t eluded Japan captain Kazuki Himeno.
“(Samoa) has experience and physicality, and good game control as well,” he said. “But we have our plans to win this game, which we have to trust and execute on. We have to stay connected and communicate in tough times, and make double tackles to win the collisions."
Samoa may look to profit off of insider knowledge. Head coach Seilala Mapusua spent five years playing in Japan for Kubota Spears and Kamaishi Seawaves. Former Wallaby out-half Christian Leali'ifano, hooker Sama Malolo and flanker Taleni Seu also spent time in Japan’s pro league. They understand what makes Japanese rugby tick, how its teams approach the game. Heads-up rugby, in old-fashioned parlance. Or, perhaps more appropriately: “jouer, jouer, jouer.”
Such familiarity with Japan also breeds respect.
"I probably won't talk too much about (our gameplan) as there a lot of Japanese journalists in the room,” Mapusua said. “But we are very wary of Japan's strengths in terms of their speed and also their never-say-die attitude. ... We will be looking to counter those strengths and implement how we want to play in terms of using our physicality and doing the basics well.”
Japan might not be gifted with 130-kilogram props or wingers the size of back-row forwards, but nor do the Samoan’s possess the Brave Blossom’s balletic speedsters or ability to run a team ragged. This is the central dynamic around which things are likely to unfold: A slugger looking to haymaker the opposition into oblivion versus a fleet-footed dancer dragging the bout out to 12 rounds.
The scene is now set for the tussle in Toulouse, a city where rugby is baked into every terracotta tile and coral-colored shopfront. The enormity of it all won’t be lost on Japan’s traveling faithful — who are once again arriving in droves — and it’s time they were given something to get excited about. It will be a fitting return for their never-waning enthusiasm and the hundreds of thousands of yen they’ve spent to be here.
Joseph and his charges haven’t shirked this responsibility. But the Brave Blossoms will need to find an extra gear if they’re to set up another knockout game — in all but name — with Argentina next week.
"We felt we created pressure on England but we just weren't good enough to put (the chances) away,” Joseph said. “We want to make sure that we get into that position against Samoa, but be good enough to get a result."
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