Two big questions hang over international politics: Who will prevail in Ukraine and will China invade Taiwan?
If anyone tells you they know the answer to either, they are lying. Everyone has an idea — typically, more a preference or guesswork than analysis — but they’re still filling in a lot of blanks.
More accurately, there is no answer yet. The winner in Ukraine will be determined by a slew of factors that continue to shift. The Chinese leadership hasn’t made up its mind about the need, desirability or possibility of an invasion. It can’t be predicted because decisions haven’t been made.