• It's impossible to put a number on what Ukraine's reconstruction cost will be as long as it is uncertain how long the war will last and what a peace treaty will look like. | REUTERS
    It's impossible to put a number on what Ukraine's reconstruction cost will be as long as it is uncertain how long the war will last and what a peace treaty will look like. | REUTERS
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BERKELEY, California – Talking up a Marshall Plan for Ukraine is a popular sport nowadays.

The game starts by tossing out a figure for the cost of reconstructing Ukraine from the ravages of the Russian invasion — $250 billion, or $500 billion, or $1 trillion, depending on assumptions about how much is destroyed, the cost of caring for refugees and so forth. The overall cost of the post-World War II Marshall Plan is then compared with U.S. gross domestic product in 1948, when the program started. This typically leads to the conclusion that the cost of Ukrainian reconstruction relative to the size of the donor countries will be in the same ballpark as the Marshall Plan.

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