Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stunned the world, leading many commentators to conclude that so rash an act could be committed only by an irrational autocrat, or perhaps even a madman.

But others have discerned a rational strategy for exploiting the West’s current weakness to re-establish the old Soviet empire. Who is right?

From the fiascos in Syria and Afghanistan to Brexit and the deepening polarization and paralysis in the United States and Europe (which is also irredeemably dependent on Russian energy), there are plenty of reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin may have decided that this was the moment to strike. Add in Russians’ post-imperial hangover after the fall of the Soviet Union, and you can start to see why he may think he is holding a winning hand.