As Brexit trade talks enter a make-or-break final negotiating stretch, the impending changes in Washington can’t help but influence things. President-elect Joe Biden isn’t going to express a view over fishing quotas or the impasse on state subsidies. But his election increases the costs for Prime Minister Boris Johnson of a failure in the negotiations.
A hard split won’t just damage Britain’s trade and political ties with the EU; it will irritate the Americans, too — especially if it creates problems with the Irish border.
The contrast in U.S. administrations couldn’t be starker. Donald Trump’s very presence encouraged Johnson’s Brexit brinkmanship with Brussels. Britain could threaten to walk away knowing a friendly White House approved. Trump was openly hostile toward Europe, and he was even promising a quick U.S.-U.K. trade deal as a reward for splitting from the single market.