China’s leaders are currently putting the finishing touches on the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which will cover the 2021-25 period. But one aspect of the plan — the so-called dual-circulation strategy — is already attracting the world’s attention. Many fear that China is “turning inward” just when the global economy is staring down the barrel of a recession. These fears are misplaced.
According to President Xi Jinping, the dual-circulation strategy means that China will rely mainly on “internal circulation” — the domestic cycle of production, distribution, and consumption — for its long-term development. This will reduce China’s dependence on overseas markets and technology.
But that doesn’t mean China is withdrawing from the world. To understand what it does mean, one must first comprehend how Chinese policymakers think about the country’s long-term development trajectory.