In the days before GPS was commercially available, I decided to hike Mount Jackson in New Hampshire. The guidebook said Tisdale Spring was close to the summit, so when I passed a small spring after a couple hours, I thought the hard part was almost over. After a while of heightened expectation, however, I passed another spring — and that process repeated itself several times before I reached the real Tisdale Spring and thereafter the summit.
The U.S. employment report released Friday, initially heralded as the end of the COVID-19 challenge, seems much more likely to be the economic equivalent of that first, misleading spring on Mount Jackson.
Yes, it was good news that the number employed rose by 2.5 million in May, after a decline of 22 million from January to April. But three factors suggest the economy remains fragile and in need of further government stimulus: