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2020 has gotten off to a frighteningly rocky start. The mounting global tensions of 2019 have continued to simmer at an ever-higher frequency, and at the start of this year, we are already at a geopolitical tipping point. Eurasia Group’s annual top risks report has highlighted growing levels of geopolitical risks for a decade, but this is the first year ever that the United States has been given the No. 1 slot, which places it at the top of the list of global boiling points.

The “Great decoupling” of the U.S. and China comes in a close second. While America braces for stormy weather (and a presidential election), Japan is preparing for sunshine as the world comes to Tokyo for the Summer Olympic Games.

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